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One swallow doesn’t make a summer and one by-election defeat in the depths of winter on a turnout of 21% doesn’t mean a party is on the skids.
But UKIP’s defeat in the Newington by-election has some significance. It was the first test of the party’s standing since last May’s elections, when the party created a small piece of history by taking control of Thanet council.
That success sugared the bitter pill of the failure of Nigel Farage to become an MP.
The new council leader Chris Wells took office saying his intention was to make Thanet the most boring council in the world - a pledge, that on all counts, is nowhere near being fulfilled.
Part of its difficulty - actually, the main reason - is self-inflicted. UKIP won the council election in large part because it placed a commitment to re-open Manston as an airport front and centre of its campaign.
So did the Conservatives. The result was an attritional political arms race in which both parties sought to outdo one another in the scrap for votes and not much attention was paid to any other issue.
The fate of Manston continues to cast a large shadow over the council, with no sign of it being settled any time soon.
Having made such an explicit commitment, UKIP cannot complain that it is being held to account over it.
Its problem is that anything else it may be doing - or not doing - is not receiving much attention - a debilitating, not to say frustrating, situation for the UKIP administration, a nagging political toothache it can’t get rid of.
Manston is important - although its importance is rather exaggerated by both sides - but it is just one issue among many the council needs to address, not least some extremely serious financial challenges.
It may take some consolation from the fact that its vote in Newington did not go into complete meltdown.
And there is, at this stage, very little prospect of it being turned out of power by a rainbow coalition.
As for Labour, there is a sense of relief at its victory within the party. Should it have done better in what is arguably among its safest wards? Possibly, but a win is a win and it won’t be too bothered about the margin of victory at this point.
But the electorate is clearly reserving judgement.
If the party under Corbyn remains so publicly divided, voters are unlikely to swing behind it in the numbers it needs to re-establish itself as the main opposition force - not just in Thanet but the rest of Kent.