It’s the 89th Academy Awards and it’s become a tradition for me to give my predictions on what will win the six big prizes.

So, who should win the 2017 Oscars and who are the dark horses to look out for?

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
Dev Patel – Lion
Michael Shannon - Nocturnal Animals

This award is going straight to Mahershala Ali for his performance in Moonlight. In Barry Jenkins’ study of a gay black man’s coming of age, Ali plays a drug dealer who takes the film’s protagonist under his wing as a child. No one else is really going to come close, but if there is a surprise on the night, it’s most likely to be Lucas Hedges’ powerful performance in Manchester by the Sea, but it’s a long, long shot.

Will win: Mahershala Ali

Dark horse: Lucas Hedges

Best Supporting Actress

Viola Davis – Fences
Naomie Harris – Moonlight
Nicole Kidman – Lion
Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures
Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea

Much like Mahershala Ali, this award has had Viola Davis’s name on it since day one. She’s the emotional heart of Fences. Michelle Williams is her strongest competitor and hers is a true supporting turn (Davis’s character is really a lead).

Will win: Viola Davis

Dark horse: Michelle Williams

Best Actor

Casey Affleck - Manchester By The Sea
Andrew Garfield - Hacksaw Ridge
Ryan Gosling - La La Land
Viggo Mortensen - Captain Fantastic
Denzel Washington - Fences

As great as La La Land was, it wasn’t great because of Ryan Gosling. On the other end of the spectrum, Casey Affleck’s devastating performance as a grief-stricken caretaker is easily the best performance of the year. However, he’s in the same bracket as Denzel Washington, and that’s always a danger, especially in a year when Hollywood is desperate to prove it’s not racist.

Will win: Casey Affleck

Dark horse: Denzel Washington

Best Actress

Isabelle Huppert – Elle
Ruth Negga – Loving
Natalie Portman – Jackie
Emma Stone – La La Land
Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

Among a collection of strong performances this year, Emma Stone has the edge. There’s been a growing appreciation from award voters that what she made look easy demanded real talent and precision. What’s more, she’s the only actress whose movie is also nominated for Best Picture and this year I think that might be the clincher.
On the other hand, the Academy loves getting press and if it thinks she might give another headline-stealing speech, it could give the award to Meryl Streep.

Will win: Emma Stone

Dark horse: Meryl Streep

Best Director

Denis Villeneuve – Arrival
Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
Damien Chazelle – La La Land
Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
Barry Jenkins – Moonlight

Obviously the big news here is that the Academy has forgiven Mel Gibson for his drunken, racist, anti-Semitic rants. I mean, he’s not going to win, but baby steps. Then again, if Roman Polanski can win an Oscar, anything’s possible. In terms of serious contenders, I’ll be very surprised if this award doesn’t go to Damien Chazelle. His visual storytelling prowess combined with the performances he got from his stars and his ability to cut between gorgeous musical numbers and serious emotional moments make his work worthy of a statue.

Will win: Damien Chazelle

Dark horse: Barry Jenkins

Best Picture

Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

This is La La Land’s award to lose. The $30m musical has made more than $125m in the USA alone and has steamrollered nearly every other competition it’s been in. But it failed to land a Screen Actors Guild nomination for Best Ensemble, something done by every other Best Picture winner in the last two decades. And then there’s Moonlight. It’s off the scale on the diversity charts and gives Oscar voters a prime opportunity to pat themselves on the backs.

Will win: La La Land

Dark horse: Moonlight