The results of council by-elections are notoriously unreliable indicators of political fortunes so what can we learn if anything - from Labour’s smash and grab raid on a formerly solid Conservative ward in Medway council?
Labour mounted a highly-organised campaign and got plenty of activists out on the streets. It was effective but while such an intensive campaign is possible when your resources are directed at one ward, it is more difficult to replicate across the whole council.
The Conservatives may have suffered from a classic case of mid-term blues, where the electorate used the election to give the government, rather than the council, a kicking. Although coming just a few weeks after hiking up council tax bills by a shade under 7% won’t have helped. But the scale of the swing against it a year out from the full election should be a warning that the party can't take anything for granted.
Labour were all over social media throughout the campaign. It’s always debatable whether the hyper-active posts from a party on Twitter has much impact on actual votes. But it does at least show a party aware of the political equivalent of marginal gains to be had from keeping up the profile of the by-election - and the appearance of activity.
Alex Paterson is Medway’s latest councillor after securing the surprise result in the Rochester West by-election
As if further evidence was needed, Ukip is a party in freefall. It scraped 107 votes - a staggering slide of 90% on the 2015 council result in the same ward. The expectation might have been that its vote would go to the Conservatives. It didn't - perhaps an indicator that post-Brexit domestic issues like the NHS and cuts to council services have pushed other issues, notably immigration, down the agenda.
There wasn’t much joy for the Liberal Democrats who really are in desperate need of being able to show they can be a player in local government. Medway has not always been a happy hunting ground for the party and it is hard to see it making many inroads either before or at next year’s election.
At 33%, turnout might appear to be low but for a council by-election held in early March on a pretty dismal day wasn't too bad - recent by-elections in other parts of the county have been around 20%. Of course, the fact that two thirds of voters couldn't be bothered isn't a cause for celebration but it was better than might have been expected.
