Polls might not predict 2019 General Election
Published: 15:30, 29 October 2019
Updated: 15:30, 29 October 2019
Are we edging closer to a general election this side of Christmas? The answer is yes - after Labour announced it would back a poll in December.
As ever, it comes with a standard health warning and we will find out later this evening when MPs vote on the government’s proposal for an election on December 12 - and the alternative proposal by the Lib Dems and SNP for a poll on December 9.
Jeremy Corbyn has consistently said he wants an election - albeit with an assurance that a no-deal Brexit is removed - and may have calculated that it risked looking like it was being unnecessarily obstructive had it continued to block an election.
The national opinion polls don’t make for optimistic reading for the party but we will be reminded that the polls were widely out of kilter back in 2017.
An average of all polls put the Conservatives on 43.7%; with Labour trailing at 35.8%; the actual result saw the Conservatives on 43.5% and Labour on 41%.
And of course there was a seismic shock in Canterbury where Labour masterminded a dramatic coup and captured a seat that had been in Conservative hands since 1910.
The current political instability and the Brexit crisis creates an even more unpredictable backdrop.
Read more: All the latest news from Kent
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Paul Francis