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Investment in farming is slowing down amid uncertainty over Brexit, putting businesses at risk, according to a leading Kent rural expert.
Farm owners are holding back on big expenditures until there is a clearer picture about the future of the industry, said emeritus professor Allan Buckwell, who leads the Kent branch of the Country Land and Business Association, known as the CLA.
He said the government needs to outline how it plans to address key issues like the future of subsidies and access to migrant labour.
Without clarity, ministers risk farmers transferring operations to Europe or the collapse of some businesses.
Prof Buckwell, who lives in Canterbury, said: “Farming is a long range business and this means anyone contemplating serious investment in a new a cow shed, grain store or packhouse is not going to do that until there is clarity about conditions in two or three years’ time.
“It means you’re not forging ahead and not expanding. Kent is big in horticulture and fruit and they require big investments, which happen twice in a generation at most.
“It’s going to curtail growth and could even cause shrinkage if things go badly.
“No one wants that to happen but if the politicians make mistakes and send the wrong signals, then you won’t see growth and may even see businesses disappearing.”
Prof Buckwell’s views were backed by the National Farmers’ Union, the NFU, which said many farmers are already struggling to attract migrant labour.
Data based on National Insurance number allocations shows Kent employed 13,926 workers from overseas in 2016-17, a drop of 956 (6.4%) compared to 2015-16.
The NFU claimed the number of seasonal workers coming to work on British farms has dropped 17% year-on-year, leaving some farms short of people to harvest fruit and vegetables during the busy harvesting season.
South East communications advisor Isobel Bretherton said: “We need urgent reassurance from the government that British farms will have access to the labour they need to keep producing food post-Brexit.
"If the politicians make mistakes and send the wrong signals, then you won’t see growth and may even see businesses disappearing..." - Prof Alan Buckwell, CLA
“This is not an issue that can wait until we leave the EU.
“Cutting off access to EU workers after Brexit would seriously damage our ability to grow and harvest food.
“It takes time to recruit large numbers of people, and overseas workers need to feel confident that they can come and work in the UK in future.
“If British farmers and growers cannot source the workers they need, fruit and veg will go unharvested, they are likely to delay investments, and in some cases move their businesses abroad to where seasonal workers are based, the knock on impact would be a loss of thousands of permanent British jobs.
“In the short-term, growers are under pressure and, while we’re not at crisis point, any further drop in the number of workers would definitely hit the supply chain hard at this point in the season.
“Prices may rise if supplies of home-grown fruit and veg diminish.”