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Are you starting to now feel more confident about the future?
The British Chambers of Commerce Q3 Economic Forecast confirms that Britain has become one of the fastest-growing developed economies.
We are leading, rather than following, other major economies when it comes to short-term growth. Businesses are continuing to drive the economic recovery forward despite a number of international and domestic challenges.
Although the Chambers’ GDP forecasts have been upgraded for the next two years, we are predicting a slight slowdown in the pace of growth from next year.
As interest rates start to rise in 2015, indebted households with mortgages will face increased financial pressures and a much weaker household consumption will act as a drag on growth.
There is also the pressure on wages. I know from speaking to businesses that pay increases have been few and far between over the past few years. If you consider that household costs have risen over this period, the effect for many has been a pay decrease.
As the economy picks up businesses will have to address financial issues such as wage rates and the impact of auto enrolment for company pension schemes.
Without sounding too negative, while the UK recovery remains on course, there are many other potential obstacles up ahead.
Geo-political uncertainties such as Ukraine and the Middle East – not to mention the sluggishness in the Eurozone – will remain a serious challenge for some time.
It is therefore doubly important to address the risks that we can tackle, such as the UK’s huge current account deficit.
To continue driving the recovery, businesses need a stable and supportive environment that encourages enterprise, with low interest rates.
We have a wealth of impressive and enterprising businesses in Kent and across the rest of the UK. There is no reason why a 3% growth rate should be the height of our ambitions.
In the past, the Chambers’ forecasts have been quite accurate at predicting the future path of the UK economy. We will watch the key economic indicators with interest over the coming months.