by Trevor Sturgess

The UK is poised to come out of recession with a pick-up in business and consumer confidence.

That’s the message from two new surveys published on Tuesday, October 13.

The British Chambers of Commerce Economic Survey detected more optimism among members while the British Retail Consortium (BRC)/KPMG Retail Sales Monitor found that confidence is "trickling back" to the high street.

Third quarter (Q3) data from over 5,500 companies across the country, including Kent and Medway, show good progress in both manufacturing and services, with most key indicators improving.

Jobs have picked up in services and while cashflow remains a concern, domestic orders and sales have improved.

BCC chief economist David Kern said: "The Q3 results support our assessment that the UK economy is on the brink of leaving recession. However, the improvement is not sufficiently strong to allow us to conclude without doubt that GDP has already returned to positive growth.

"The economy is still frail. With a number of critical balances still negative in both sectors, the emerging recovery is vulnerable to a setback. Measures are needed to ensure that serious risks of a relapse can be overcome."

BCC director general David Frost said businesses were showing resilience. But it was vital that the Government nurtured the new-found confidence and let business drive the economy out of recession. Otherwise recovery would be "stunted" and the country could face double dip recession.

He called on the Government to protect infrastructure spending, avoid extra taxes on businesses and scrap the planned increase in National Insurance contributions in 2011.

Meanwhile, high street sales rose in September, up nearly three per cent over the same month a year ago.

Stephen Robertson, BRC director general, said: "For some customers confidence is trickling back. These are the best total sales growth figures since January 2008. But we mustn’t get carried away. They are compared with a weak performance last September."