by business editor Trevor Sturgess

Weak economic growth in the short term is expected to be followed by a gradual improvement, according to a survey.

The British Chambers of Commerce has downgraded its prediction for UK GDP growth in 2011 and 2012.

But it warns against "unjustified gloom," saying the latest data suggests the situation will get better.

It forecasts modest GDP growth over the next few months - 0.3% in the third quarter and 0.5% in the fourth.

The BCC expects annual growth of 1.1% (down from 1.3%) and 2.1% in 2012 (down from 2.2%), and consumer spending to fall by 1% in 2011 (double the previous forecast of a 0.5% fall).

But it says UK prospects will improve gradually, with GDP strengthening in 2012 and beyond, rising to 2.5% in 2013.

It believes unemployment will peak at 2.62m, with the jobs market set to remain "quite resilient."

Jo James, chief executive of Kent Invicta Chamber of Commerce, said the BCC had been remarkably accurate in its assessments because it based its findings on data from Chamber members in "the real world."

"It is therefore disappointing that they perceive a slight reduction in potential growth," she said.

"However, BCC remain confident overall that recovery will continue steadily, especially if business and government react appropriately to changing requirements.

"I am confident that businesses in the South East, and particularly in Kent, given their record to date, will continue to adapt to circumstances and maintain growth at, or probably above, the level predicted by BCC."