Recession will last at least a year, a leading Kent economist has forecast.

Professor Roger Vickerman, head of the University of Kent’s Department of Economics told business people on Thursday that the UK faced a one per cent reduction in growth in 2009, but that was less severed that man past recessions.

"It’s going to be around a year before we see a significant recovery," he told Kent and Medway members of the Federation of Small Businesses.

But he thought the recession would not be as deep as some experts predicted. However, that outcome depended on how much people started to talk things up and show "a bit of enthusiasm."

He expected GDP to bounce back in 2010, but warned that unemployment would rise well above two million (seven per cent of the workforce) next year.

This week, (12) the quarterly unemployment rate (5.8 per cent) reached its highest level for 10 years, with 1.82m out of work. The number of claimants rose by 657 to nearly 20,000 across the county.

Hardly a day goes by without employers announcing layoffs. This week has seen BT (10,000 jobs), Royal Bank of Scotland (2,000), JCB (500) and many others unveiling gloomy news.

Prof Vickerman said the falling pound against the dollar and euro would make life easier for exporters but more difficult for importers. "And hard luck if you’ve just retired to Spain," he said.

On a more positive note, he said the UK’s level of debt at around 40 per cent was lower than Germany and France, and inflation was also lower than in those countries. The Eurozone is now officially in recession.

There was not a lot that governments could do on their own. They had to act together. But Prof Vickerman warned it would be tough for small enterprises.

"There isn’t a lot small businesses of individuals can do against a global recession except in having confidence that 12 months down the line, things will be better."

But the unspoken question at the meeting in the university's Darwin college was: how many will still be around to emjoy them?