For pubs, Christmas and New Year trade is a bit like pantomime for theatres - the hope being the traditional festive knees-up generates sufficient revenues to get you through the quieter months that follow.

But even bumper takings at the bar over the season of goodwill are unlikely to bring glad tidings for 2025 as many pubs face an avalanche of increased costs throughout the year ahead - with the lull in January biting particularly hard.

Many of us will avoid the pub as we try to cut costs after the expense of the festive season or due to abstaining from alcohol for what has become known as ‘Dry January’.

Oh, and let’s not forget some aggressive pricing from many a landlord’s bête noir - Wetherspoon. It is enticing many to its establishments with a 99p pint offer on selected brands - an almost impossible-to-match challenge for the vast majority.

And the risk to pubs is very real.

Last year, across England and Wales, an average of 34 each month called time for the final time, succumbing to the pressures felt by so many in the squeezed hospitality sector. According to figures by the Altus Group, which provides intelligence for commercial real estate, 45 pubs in the South East, with at least a dozen in Kent among them, were among the victims during 2024 and many are still clinging on by their fingernails.

Altus Group’s Alex Probyn said: “Many publicans I speak to are extremely worried they may have seen their last Christmas given the combination of hiking the amount employers will have to pay in national insurance, increases to the minimum wage and the business rates discount being slashed from 75% to 40% in 2025.

“Many pubs simply will no longer be viable, making plots even more attractive for alternative investment.”

So how does the January drop-off hit the sector?

“During January,” explains Roland Birks, landlord of the Ship Centurion, in Whitstable, “the bottom falls out of the market quite heavily. It maybe drops by up to 25-30% compared to normal months.

“That's why you hope December is busy and pays for the big bills coming out in January.”

And the costs can take your breath away - more than £1,000 a month for electricity, the same again just for a Sky subscription to pull in the punters for big sporting events. And that’s before you start adding on staff, rent and all the other related costs. Most significantly, of course, being buying in beer.

Don’t expect going to the pub to be any cheaper in 2025 either.

“Some breweries,” the pub landlord explains, “are already thinking of putting their beers up 30-40p a pint. Which is a massive increase.

“I have overheads, so if I get a 40p increase I've also got all the other costs going up too, so I have to put the price up even more to swallow it.

“It's a make-or-break business.”

The Ship Centurion, at least, is a freehold - in other words not tied to a brewery, like, for example, Faversham’s Shepherd Neame. It means it doesn’t have to come up with rent of hundreds a week and can negotiate beer supplies - and prices.

But what of that 99p Wetherspoon promotion? How can pubs possibly compete against a chain so aggressive in its acquitision of market share?

Phil Thorley, boss of Thorley Taverns, which operates in east Kent, is somewhat philosophical on the challenge he - and all other pub operators - faces as a consequence.

“Wetherspoon,” he explains, ”have been doing 99p pints in January for a long time and they have their clientele and I respect that. They will do what they've got to do and we have to do what we have to do. They have the buying power of the biggest pub company in the UK, owned by the man who's on the top 10 rich list and good luck to him is what I say.

“I’m not even in the top 10 in my road.”

Being stoic in the face of such undercutting is, it seems, part of the pub trade.

Roland Birks adds: “Beer doesn't really affect me so much - we have the character and the staff which Wetherspoon doesn't have. We are still an old traditional pub, which people still love, but the food has hit us massively.”

A short stroll down Whitstable’s main high street takes you to the giant Spoons pub, The Peter Cushing.

“Their food is cheap and quick,” he explains. “Since Wetherspoon came along, it hit us over 60% on food - so we've died on food because of Wetherspoon.”

And it is food where so many pubs hope to make the essential extra money to stomach hikes in utilities and beer prices.

Not to mention, of course, that come April changes to national insurance contributions to employers and minimum wage increases will hike costs yet further.

Adds Phil Thorley: “It is with trepidation we look forward to the year ahead because the implication of the Budget is massive. It has been the worst I've ever known for both retail and hospitality. It's really anti-jobs, it's anti-investment and it's anti-employment of young people. It's a very difficult Budget.

“Our wage bill for our team is in the region of £5 million and we've estimated the increase in NICs is going to be something like 8.5% on that.”

That means the chain needs to find an extra £425,000 over the course of the year just to stand still.

“Ultimately,” the Thanet-based pub boss explains, “that is going to lead to less jobs and less investment into the venues. And that's a very sad thing, but we need to make sure we, as a business, will be here this time next year and the year after and the year after that.

“We are looking forward to the new year and you know we can't get too buttoned down with with things that are happening in April because we've got to get on with January, February and March first.”

Then of course there’s so many of us opting to go alcohol-free during January - and frequent reminders to us all to reduce our intake all year round.

“Lots of people do Dry January,” says Mr Thorley, “but they do Dry October and other things too.

“But pubs are not just about alcohol - they're about socialising. They're about coming together and meeting with friends and colleagues.

“And, to be honest about it, the new alcohol-free products means people are quite happy coming out now and and and drinking non-alcoholic drinks to have that social experience.”