Paul on Politics: Experts give views on how far Russia's invasion of Ukraine could go with one saying we're closer to World War Three than ever
Published: 20:38, 25 February 2022
Updated: 20:44, 25 February 2022
AS the Russian tanks roll into Ukraine, the question on the minds of many is whether we are on the brink of another world war. It is, of course, impossible to say.
But given that President Putin is displaying all the hallmarks of a tyrannical despot, it is arguably closer now than it was at the start of the week - although exactly how much closer depends on who you listen to.
Kent MP Tom Tugendhat, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, made an interesting point when asked if taking over Ukraine was the limit of the Russian leader’s expansionist plans.
“This has changed the consensus; this is no longer the post-Cold War world… this is the first time we have seen a state on state conflict since the second world war. It is an extraordinary decision by a head of state to launch an unprovoked war of aggression on a neighbouring state which is exactly what he has done," he said.
Were we edging closer to a wider prolonged war? “I hope not. But can I say more than hope? It is hard to because the decisions taken by Putin are ones that are shaping the decisions we are reacting to.”
A more sobering assessment came from Professor Richard Sakwa, an expert in Russian politics at the University of Kent.
“We are closer to World War Three than we have ever been since 1945; this is more dangerous than the Cuban missile crisis; our generation of leaders is so inadequate they have not been able to understand; they [Russia] will not back down; the only way out is diplomacy - or sooner or later, this war will only get worse.”
The Prime Minister has promised a slew of sanctions that will shackle Russia financially in a way that will make it hard for Putin to prosecute its invasion of Ukraine.
That may well be the case but the question is when and how: for many, the optics are not good. Images of rockets being launched, shells dropping on towns and cities and tanks trampling over roads - along with thousands of people trying to leave - all point to an invasion that will not be troubled unduly by distant threats to confiscate the yachts of Russian billionaires.
The same goes for the threat to freeze the assets of Russian banks - one of the measures pledged by President Biden. Someone at the White House had obviously been at work with a huge calculator: the sum of the assets amounted to trillions of dollars - which may well be the case but might equally be an exaggerated figure based on some creative accounting.
And we are told that Russia has a huge war chest which means it could withstand the financial lockdown threatened.
As to the eventual outcome and who will prevail. It’s impossible to say but the immediate outlook for Ukraine is one of pessimism rather than optimism.
As to the domestic political agenda, the pressure on Boris Johnson over 'partygate' has led to a temporary respite but the spotlight will return.
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Paul Francis