Earlier this month the Conservatives endured a torrid time at the polls, losing about 1,000 councillors in one of its worst performances at the ballot box.

With a general election likely next year, what do the results mean for our MPs? Are they just a flash-in-the-pan moment or do they sound a warning to those who currently represent us that their time may be up?

And did Conservative voters stay at home to register their unease?

In December, one poll suggested just two Kent seats would stay blue at the next general election. But could such a landslide really happen?

Political editor Paul Francis weighs up the potential risks for some of the constituencies and assesses whether Labour could breakthrough in true blue Tory heartland...

The constituency that has rarely been out of the news because of small boat crossings ought, on paper, to be a safe seat for the Conservatives. In 2019, Conservative Natalie Elphicke secured a majority of 12,278 over Labour’s Charlotte Cornell, who actually saw her party’s support drop by 7.3%.

But the uncomfortable backdrop of media coverage of would-be asylum seekers making their way in rickety dinghies and boats across to the UK has not gone away. The government is banking on the new illegal immigration bill to signal its determination to convince voters that it is getting a grip on the issue. Dover is traditionally a seat that swings between Labour and the Conservatives and the former held it for three successive terms under Tony Blair, so it is definitely not a ‘no-go’ area.

However, on the basis of the council election results, the swing to Labour of 5.5% would not be enough to wrest the seat from the Conservatives:

Labour would require a swing of close to 11% to take it from the Conservatives and it is 143 on its target list.

Risk factor: Medium/High. The Conservatives were taken by surprise in losing control of the council and if the issue of small boats crossing the Channel remains unresolved, could be vulnerable at a general election.

It’s renowned as the seat that saw former Ukip leader Nigel Farage bid unsuccessfully to become MP in 2015. That was eight years ago and the person who defeated him, Craig Mackinlay, has been the MP ever since. In 2019, his majority was a respectable 10,587 in the election which the Conservative contested under the slogan: “Get Brexit Done.”

Boundary changes mean that it is not easy to compare what happened in the recent council elections with what could happen in the parliamentary constituency. The seat is losing Sandwich and some villages which could be considered as generally Conservative.

Risk factor: Medium to high. The swing needed by Labour here is 10.7% and on paper, it is the Conservatives most marginal seat in Kent.

What about the Medway seats?

Having under-performed in the election in 2019, Labour made amends by taking control of the council for the first time in 2023. While it was not a rout, the margin of victory was solid enough. But it is hard to judge what impact the outcome of a unitary council election may have on the three parliamentary constituencies within it...

Incumbent Conservative MP Tracey Crouch comfortably retained the seat in 2019, with a majority of 18,540. In percentage terms, Crouch increased her share of the vote by 9.6%, mirrored almost identically by Labour’s dropping by 9.9%.

Risk factor: Low - by majority, it is the fourth safest seat in the county.

MP Kelly Tolhurst has represented this constituency for the best part of eight years and it remains best-known as the seat where Ukip had an MP for a few brief months after the defection of Mark Reckless. On paper, would require Labour to secure a swing of 16.4% - which is unlikely.

Risk factor: Low

MP Rehman Chishti ought to be untroubled here with a healthy majority of more than 15,000 and Labour needing a swing of more than 16%.

Risk: Low

What about the rest of Kent?

Often described as a bellwether seat – meaning that voters here tend to vote the same way as the majority of the country – so the party that wins is the party destined to form a government.

The swing to Labour in the recent council election was 7%. The majority held by MP Adam Holloway of 15,581 would need to be pruned back pretty harshly for him to be in real trouble.

Risk factor: Low

In the council elections this was the only part of Kent where the Conservatives held on to power. So an upset here seems unlikely. But remember that this was a solid Labour seat under the Prime Minister Tony Blair. Incumbent MP Gareth Johnson would lose if his rival somehow managed to secure a swing of more than 17%.

Risk factor: Low

With incumbent MP Gordon Henderson standing down, Labour might feel that its prospects are better than in previous elections. But Henderson has bequeathed a majority of 24,479 with a 9% swing, making for a tough challenge for Labour.

Risk factor: Low to medium

The Conservatives did better than some of its neighbouring authorities, losing four councillors but with 19 elected members, remains the largest party. MP Damian Green should be safe despite boundary changes.

Risk factor: Low

An unexpected surge by the Green party may create uncertainty for MP Damian Collins; could he face a tactical alliance of opposition parties?

Risk factor: Low to medium

Veteran MP Sir Roger Gale ought to be safe here and is determined to be around for another term. Both he and Craig Mackinlay will see boundary changes and new constituencies with new names under a shake-up that redraws the political map.

Risk: Low

Helen Whately has been a dogged and loyal supporter and there had been speculation she might pitch for the newly-created Weald of Kent seat. But she is staying put and has a 21,000 majority, which should cushion her against any surprises.

Risk: Low

The council has moved to ‘no overall control’ but the seat is not seen as one where Labour performs well as it is one where the Lib Dems are the main opposition. Helen Grant should be safe.

Risk factor: Low

Threw up one of the surprises in the election, with Tories losing control. However, MP Tom Tugendhat has a majority of 26,941 which ought to be sufficient to cushion any drop in support.

Risk factor: Low

Has already seen the Conservatives shunted into opposition while a coalition of the other parties including Labour take charge. But Greg Clark should still keep his seat.

Risk factor: Low to medium

The unthinkable nearly became the thinkable with a mini surge by the Liberal Democrats catapulting them into second place - with the Conservatives losing 13 councillors along the way. However, this meltdown may not be echoed at a general election. And if it does, Tory MP Laura Trott – and indeed the whole party – would be in real trouble.

Risk factor: How low can you go?

What about Labour’s only Kent seat?

The seat has been held by Labour's Rosie Duffield since 2017, when she defeated incumbent Tory Julian Brazier by the narrowest of margins. Despite an uneasy relationship with party leader Keir Starmer, she remains popular with many - and may benefit from degree of tactical voting to keep out the Conservatives.

Risk factor: Low

The view from an at-risk Tory MP

Low taxes and an injection of excitement is the prescription needed to revive the party’s fortunes, says the MP in Kent’s most vulnerable Conservative seat.

Thanet South MP Craig Mackinlay says the party needs to do more to attract voters back.

“There are plenty of Conservative voters out there but I am very clear - I don't think that we have given them enough excitement. We have to recognise local elections are a temperature gauge but history is littered with local election results that are then followed by different general election results.”

“There are some key policies that we have to get right, like the small boats problem, that has got to work. Until that is in place I don't think Conservative voters will be impressed.”

He says some of the tax proposals have been “too penny pinching”.

But he says Keir Starmer does not pose a threat in the same way Tony Blair did.

“I don't detect that there are switches going from Conservative to Labour; it's not like Blair’s time when he was an exciting character. I don't think Starmer is appealing to Kent Conservatives; I don't know what the message is from Labour, frankly. If you stand back from being partisan and ask what do you stand for, I’m not sure what it is.”

He does not accept that people are simply fed up with the Conservatives and want a change.

On the performance of Rishi Sunak, he says that “he has steadied the ship, there’s no doubt about that and I think that is important. We will see inflation coming down; we will see the cost of living crisis diminishing.”

“At the end of the day people do vote with their pockets, that is quite a natural thing to do. We need some excitement back and we need to give people a reason to vote Conservative.”