An education commentator fears a “frightening” post-Covid culture of absenteeism in Kent schools will result in a generation of criminals.

Peter Read, a former head teacher, spoke out as official analysis suggested there may be thousands of young criminals and violent offenders across the country by 2027.

Like much of the UK, the number of “ghost children”, defined as persistent truants, has risen in Kent since the pandemic, he said.

Absence rates rise with school age and are more likely to occur in socially deprived areas, says the study by the Centre for Social Justice (CSJ).

The centre predicts there could be 9,000 more young offenders, including 2,000 violent criminals, in four years based on government figures which reveal 8.7% of children who miss school regularly will offend by the time they are 17 compared to 2% of children who attended normally.

The CSJ called on the government to “stop tinkering around the edges” and accelerate the national rollout of attendance mentors.

Mr Read said: “I agree with that (CSJ) assessment absolutely. There is alarm across the sector about the consequences in terms of exam results, life chances and attitudes to life.

“I have to share the (CSJ) concerns and I do very much fear for children’s futures. It’s frightening.”

Mr Read cites social deprivation and peer group pressure as reasons for the ongoing issues but pinning the responsibility on parents is not the answer.

He added: “The most responsible parents will always do their best but there are others who don’t.

“I fear that we are developing a culture that, somehow, school is optional now. It is very easy to identify the problems but what the solution is, I shudder to think.

“What it will require is a concerted effort from all parties, including the government, to get over to young people that attending school is part of their future. I am not sure presently that they are going to be convinced.”

“The most responsible parents will always do their best but there are others who don’t...”

Around 80% of secondary schools in the county are now part of academies, accountable to the government, while the rest are under the Kent County Council umbrella.

KCC’s cabinet member for education and skills, Cllr Rory Love acknowledges there is a problem over attendance levels.

He said: “The national response to the Covid-19 pandemic had a significant and ongoing impact on pupil attendance, both nationally and within Kent.

"Pre-pandemic persistent absence levels for the 2018/19 academic year for schools in Kent were at 9.2% (primary) and 15.2% (secondary), both of which doubled following the pandemic in the academic year 2021/22 (19.1% primary and 29.2% secondary). "

He said that since the Department for Education's ‘Working together to improve school attendance’ guidance last year, Kent County Council has remained committed to implementing it.

Cllr Love added: “The figures we are receiving from primary and secondary schools in Kent for September 2022 to July 2023 indicate that the work we are doing with them to tackle persistent absence is having results, and attendance has improved since the 2021/22 academic year.

"I acknowledge there is more work to be done, and we will continue to support schools as they work to improve their attendance further.”

Mr Read said the issue of absence comes up ‘over and over again’ in Ofsted inspections since the pandemic lockdowns.

He added: “Virtually every Ofsted report in Kent, particularly the secondary schools, mentions absence levels.

“It is there over and over again - schools are not dealing with absence.

“There is also a common view, anecdotally, that another reason for absence is because parents are working from home. If they are at home on Fridays and Mondays, there seems to be a trend for children to take those days off too.

“There is a worry across the sector. Even grammar schools are worried about pupil absence.”

Nationally, the CSJ says 1.7m are missing school at least 10% of the time and there are now 125,000 missing most of their education.

"I acknowledge there is more work to be done...”

It was announced recently that Tonbridge’s High Christie School was downgraded from ‘good’ to inadequate because it failed to provide post-Covid support.

According to Ofsted, which inspected in March, management at the school failed “to check on the well-being and support for pupils who do not attend school regularly since the period of partial school closures caused by the coronavirus”.

But even schools rated ‘good’ have to face the problem of post-Covid absenteeism.

A 2022 Ofsted inspection awarded Folkestone Academy a ‘good’ rating.

But the inspector noted: “Although leaders’ strategies to improve pupils’ attendance have reduced the proportion of pupils who are persistently absent, pupils’ attendance needs to improve further.”