More on KentOnline
More on KentOnline
First-time voters could prove a decisive factor in the outcome of the election in Kent's most marginal seat, according to new research.
A study by an independent group promoting fairness for young people suggests the result in Canterbury, where Labour has a majority of just 187, is among the top 10 constituencies where new voters - alongside a higher turnout of voters between the age of voters aged 18 to 36 - could make the greatest difference.
It coincides with figures indicating there has been a huge rise in voter registration in the run-up to the December poll compared with the same period in 2017.
According to the Electoral Reform Society, close to 3.2 million applications to register were made in the period from the day the election was called to the start of this week - an average of 114,000 a day.
For the same period in the run up to the 2017 poll, the average was 68,000 a day.
Labour's shock win in Canterbury in 2017 was credited by some as a result of a large student vote.
Four years on the new research by the Intergenerational Foundation, shows that since the election of 2017, 2,732 new first-time voters have registered in the constituency and the number of eligible voters aged 18 to 35 years-old is 31,620.
While there are likely to be individual differences from seat to seat, the research says that when polling data is taken into account "a higher turnout among new voters in any of these marginals would be likely to benefit Labour significantly more than it would the Conservatives".
The study says even a relatively small increase in the number of young people voting in Canterbury - 10% of those eligible - could have an impact.
Researchers say the figures illustrate the point that young people hold more power probably either they, or for that matter, many politicians have realised and their influence is magnified if they happen to live in a marginal seat.
The report acknowledges there will be variations between different seats but the closeness of the last three elections means young voters could have a very big impact on the overall outcome.
Labour has downplayed the potential of the student vote to help the party retain Canterbury.
While the election takes place one day before the official end of term, many students may already have left for the Christmas holiday.
Researchers cautioned their calculations were made against the "significant obstacle" that official figures for the size of the UK's electorate has no age breakdown.
As a result, it relied on data from the Electoral Commission and the Office for National Statistics.
