Exclusive by political editor Paul Francis

A shortage of primary school places is looming in Kent just years after dozens were closed or merged by the county council because of falling pupil numbers.

A previously unpublished report ,obtained by KM Group, reveals that in some parts of the county there won't be enough primary school places for pupils in 2011-2012.

Gravesham and Dartford will be the worst affected. In these two districts, there will be an estimated 223 more places needed than are available.

In Tunbridge Wells, there could be an estimated shortfall of 90 places.

The report, prepared by education officials at County Hall last year, questions whether KCC went too far when it embarked on a hugely controversial programme of school closures and mergers in 2006.

The programme, affecting more than 40 schools, led to widespread opposition and triggered campaigns across the county.

At the time, KCC warned empty desks were costing it millions each year and a falling birth rate meant it had no option.

Now it appears that the authority believes it may have miscalculated and is concerned that it has curbed parental choice.

Under KCC's own guidelines, schools are required to have between five and seven per cent surplus capacity to cushion any unexpected additional demand for places.

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But the report indicates that spare capacity across Kent's schools will be under one per cent next year - way below the recommended level.

The projections are bound to raise questions about whether the authority miscalculated when it embarked on its controversial programme.

But that charge was rejected by Cllr Gary Cooke (Con), deputy cabinet member for education.

"You have to look at the bigger picture and with all schools, there are a number of different factors affecting demand.

"What we are seeing at the moment is some peaks that were not unexpected. There is spare capacity in the system to enable these to be managed."

A section of the report headed "Has the LA [KCC] removed too many places?" details how the authority has moved from having too many spare places to the prospect of having too few.

It shows that in 2005-2006, there were 3,299 spare places across its 424 primaries.

In 2008-2009, that had reduced to 1,479 but projections for 2011-2012 show there could be just 108 spare places for the 16,500 children likely to start school in September - a surplus of just 0.7 per cent and at least 600 fewer than should be in reserve.

The report drew a withering response from those who tried to resist school closures.

Any Roberts, a governor of Ripple School in east Kent - at the time the county's smallest school, said: "We said at the time that the long term figures showed the population was increasing.

"It was all ignored for short term gain by KCC, which did not look at the projections for the future. Now it has come home to roost."