There will be huge gains for Labour in Kent after the next general election, according to a respected polling prediction website.

Local Democracy Reporter Simon Finlay crunches the 2021 Kent County Council election results to see if the warning signs are there…

The Electoral Calculus (EC) prediction website forecasts there will be nine Labour members of the House of Commons after the next general election – with the Tories also having nine.

In examining the Westminster seats in the Kent County Council (KCC) catchment, trends in voting patterns at the last poll in 2021 could prove useful indicators.

Every pollster would suggest Labour will easily be the biggest party on the national stage when PM Rishi Sunak goes to the country, possibly next autumn.

Much has happened in the past four years and the Tories’ misfortunes have rarely been out of the news.

A pandemic, ‘partygate’, three Prime Ministers, a sharp economic downturn and war in Europe have made Boris Johnson’s 2019 Brexit-inspired triumph seem a distant memory.

According to EC, there are Tory-held seats where the majorities could be so thin, such as Damian Collins' Folkestone and Hythe (recently just 0.6%), Labour will feel a tactical vote by a significant section of the once-mighty Lib Dems and emerging Greens could see the Oxford-educated MP ousted.

One KCC division, where Lib Dem Tim Prater polled 41%, is a case in point. Electors down on the coast in Hythe (once the Tory principality of former KCC chairman Chris Capon, who mischievously backed the Greens to county victory three years before his 2016 death) have become increasingly savvy in their votes' tactical deployment, too.

One can see the merit in the Lib Dems only focusing on seats they can win, especially in places such as Tunbridge Wells, where their stock is steadily rising but Conservative MP Greg Clark sits on a 14,500 majority.

Once a blue rinse haven for traditional Tories, the local council is now run by the Lib Dems and have former military officer Mike Martin as a candidate who ticks many of the boxes required to have general appeal.

At the last KCC elections in 2021, the Lib Dems came second to the Tories in four of the five divisions.

One Tory MP said: “Tunbridge Wells is tricky. The demographic there is changing and not in favour of Greg.”

Having said that, EC gives the Lib Dems a mere 7% chance of winning, a long way from Labour’s 29% share for second place.

It is hard to credit it, perhaps, but Mr Clark is now seen as vulnerable. Tactical voting may prove irresistible.

According to an EC survey, 60% of Greens are prepared to vote tactically, as would 48% of Lib Dems.

Martin Baxter, EC’s CEO, said: "Our figures show that the next election is likely to see straightforward anti-Conservative tactical voting, compared with the pro- and anti-Brexit tactical voting that was seen in 2019.

“Many Conservative seats, particularly in the south of England, are at risk."

The KCC catchment does not include the Medway Council unitary authority area where there are currently three Conservatives - Rehman Chishti (Gillingham & Rainham), Kelly Tolhurst (Rochester & Strood) and Tracey Crouch (Chatham & Aylesford). All are predicted to lose to Labour.

Six of the remaining 14 constituencies would turn red, says the website, although a new constituency, the Weald of Kent, is predicted to go to the Tories – making it nine MPs apiece for Labour and the Conservatives in Kent.

The outlook looks equally bleak across the south east where the Conservatives would drop from 74 seats to 45, according to EC, with Labour gaining 24 (to 32) and the Lib Dems five (to six).

It would indicate electoral wipeout on a scale not seen since Tony Blair’s New Labour landslide in 1997. What is so remarkable about Labour’s turnaround is that Boris Johnson achieved an 80-seat landslide triumph over Jeremy Corbyn in 2019.

This year, trends are slightly confused by real results elsewhere in the country.

Oxford University professors Colin Railings and Michael Thrasher noted recently in a small sample of county by-elections there is a clear trend away from the Conservatives.

But there have also been the two gains by the Greens from the Lib Dems. The Green surge has been evidenced in Kent with five members currently at County Hall.

At the time of writing, Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour, if EC is to be believed, would head back to Downing Street with 414 seats. The Tories would face an existential meltdown with just 159 MPs.

It has to be underlined that the website uses data from all polling as well as trends and other analysis - but not local single issues, such as house-building or an amenity closure.

“The north of the county could go Labour like the old days of Bob Marshall-Andrews, Chris Pond and Howard Stoate but the others are far less easy to predict...”

Renowned pollster Frank Luntz has already warned Conservative MPs that if they have a majority of under 15,000 they are “likely gone”.

On that basis, out would go Natalie Elphicke (Dover & Deal), Greg Clark (Tunbridge Wells), Craig Mackinlay (Thanet South) and Adam Holloway (Gravesham) whether they choose to stand or not.

Mr Mackinlay (majority 10,500) will suffer from boundary changes too, losing the normally reliable town of Sandwich and some villages (Tory KCC member for Sandwich, Sue Chandler, took 60% of the 2021 vote).

Thanet South has traditionally been less of a bellwether seat and more of a yo-yo.

Friends say the MP remains chipper but “realistic” at the political landscape going into the next election.

Dartford and Dover tend to be seen as indicator seats in Kent and EC predicts both will go to Labour.

But 2021’s KCC results would suggest the Tory vote is reasonably firm in both areas.

Dover MP Natalie Elphicke’s tough stance on the small boats crisis may help to consolidate support on the right and among port and Border Force workers, says a local politics watcher.

Labour, who stand to win according to EC, did not return any KCC members last time in Dover although it recently took control of the district council with a 12% swing.

A senior Lib Dem observer said: “The north of the county could go Labour like the old days of Bob Marshall-Andrews, Chris Pond and Howard Stoate but the others are far less easy to predict and, besides, some of the Tory majorities are huge.

“When we’re three months out, what Electoral Calculus says will have much more relevance...”

“Labour may win seats only because people will vote to get the Tories out. Tactical voting could, in theory, help us - but you can’t depend on it. We always have to work very hard to win anywhere.”

According to EC, Kent's only Labour MP, Rosie Duffield in Canterbury, is predicted to increase her 2019 majority of 3.1% to 24.2% with a 94% chance of winning. Yet the 2021 KCC results in the city yielded only two Labour members of the four.

Interestingly, a Labour Party list of "non-priority" candidates in Kent shows where, presumably, it feels it has the least chance of winning.

They are: Chatham & Aylesford (currently held by Tracey Crouch), Faversham & Mid Kent (Helen Whately), Sevenoaks (Laura Trott), Sittingbourne & Sheppey (Gordon Henderson) and Tonbridge (Tom Tugendhat).

A rudimentary extrapolation of that list would assume Labour feels confident in taking 12 of the 17 existing seats, three more than the nine EC predicts.

An even more tantalising roll would be those dozen in priority order.

EC gives Ashford Tory MP Damian Green a slim (3.5%) majority at the next election, compared to his 40% margin in 2019 with a 61% share. But the last KCC results would suggest support seems steady with a possible rogue threat coming from the Greens.

But, more crucially, a big chunk of the patch will be lost through a boundary change to create the Weald of Kent seat.

KCC elections attract a turnout of just one third of the electorate - whereas general elections usually command at least twice that - but tend to be fought on local issues.

The Tory MP confided: “I don’t think we’re in a bad place. Electoral Calculus is a pretty good indicator but not this far out from the election.

“We know we’re in for a kicking at the general election and we’re likely to lose a lot of Kent MPs...”

“The economy will have pretty much sorted itself out by the time of the next election and the polls are not always correct, in any case.

“When we’re three months out, what Electoral Calculus says will have much more relevance.”

Ironically, there is a flip side.

There is a theory that a bad general election for the Tories result could be good news for the KCC candidates in 2025, the reasoning being that diehard Tories are unlikely to protest vote twice.

One KCC member said: “We know we’re in for a kicking at the general election and we’re likely to lose a lot of Kent MPs. We’re just hoping the faithful will return to us at KCC in May 2025 if Keir Starmer is Prime Minister.”

At a recent group away day meeting of Tory KCC councillors at the Great Danes Hotel in Maidstone, members were asked to imagine how they would persuade someone they met in a sauna to vote Conservative.

Councillors also contributed ‘good’ things about each of the KCC directorates - the information to be collated into the basis of a plan to fight the 2025 election.

One said: “The reality is that with the council teetering on the brink of bankruptcy and all that is happening nationally, we need to come up with something compelling to say.

“The truth is, there are a lot of Conservatives who won’t stand again in 2025 at county and we could lose about half of our 60 seats. Some are safe and some are not.”