More on KentOnline
More on KentOnline
The Conservatives are set to lose control of Kent County Council (KCC) at the local elections on May 1, a new survey suggests.
The Electoral Calculus (EC) poll of 5,400 people, between March 1-10, claims the Tories would lose to Reform UK.
The pollster said the Tories were likely to suffer “significant losses” across the board in England.
But Conservative councillor Andrew Kennedy discounted the findings as “out of date” claiming the party’s own data suggested a potential drift to the Tories from Reform UK in Kent.
EC also predicts that in authorities where English county elections are to go ahead in May, the Conservatives will out-poll other parties with 26% (548 seats), followed by Reform UK on 25% (474) and Labour on 20% (252). The Liberal Democrats could take 270 seats with just a 16% vote share.
This would translate into the Conservatives having full control of three authorities and being the biggest party in seven others.
The survey suggests Reform UK would be in full control of four councils and the largest party in another four in England this year. The Lib Dems are predicted to be the biggest in five.
Where county council elections are delayed because of the government’s devolution programme and local government reform, Reform UK emerges in front with 223 seats, while the Tories have 140, the Lib Dems 131 and Labour 33.
This would mean Reform UK would take overall control of two authorities and be the biggest party in another two. The Conservatives would be the largest party in just one of the “delayed” batcheswhile the Lib Dems would be the biggest in three but not in full charge.
The poll, commissioned by the Daily Telegraph, used multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) techniques to make its prediction by applying methods from mathematics, statistics and computing to political and market research.
The study says: “Our prediction is that the Conservatives will lose a large amount of support and councillors to the Reform UK party.
“The Liberal Democrats are also expected to make some gains, while Labour might lose ground a little.
“The Green party and independent candidates are more difficult to predict accurately, so their predictions are subject to a greater amount of uncertainty.”
Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, said: "Our local election poll shows that the Conservatives are likely to make significant losses compared with their strong performance back in 2021.
“Reform UK look like the main gainers as they could take control of eight councils to gain their first real power-base in local government.
“But the large-scale delays to elections, affecting over five and a half million voters, will soften the scale of Conservative losses and reduce Reform's gains."
Some observers doubt Reform UK will be the largest party and fewer still believe it will emerge as the largest party at County Hall.
Cllr Kennedy, who represents Malling north east, said: “I don’t believe the results of the polling, partly because it is out of date and partly because it is at odds with our own data. That suggests more than 50% of potential Reform UK voters are uncommitted…and are seriously considering coming back to us.”
A Green Party source said activists were not detecting “much enthusiasm” for Reform UK on the doorstep, adding that Nigel Farage’s closeness to US President Donald Trump is a “total turn-off” for voters.
Both the Greens and the Lib Dems are both hoping to win between 15 and 20 seats, and if they joined forces in an alliance it might bring them within touching distance of a 41-seat majority.
KCC’s first elected Reform UK member, Thomas Mallon, who won a by-election last November in Dartford, said all but two of the 81 candidates have been chosen and believes a “hard fought” campaign could yield 30 plus seats.
One senior Labour activist admits that the party’s vote will be “under stress” from Reform in the east of Kent but hopes local members’ track records will count.
Click here to see how Kent’s political landscape might look after the biggest local authority shake-up in 50 years
According to the overall EC poll, aside from Kent, Reform UK is predicted to take control of Derbyshire, Doncaster, Durham, Suffolk and Thurrock and is expected to be the largest party in Norfolk, Essex, Staffordshire, Nottinghamshire, Northumberland and Lancashire.
The Conservatives are predicted to retain overall control of only Buckinghamshire, Leicestershire and Wiltshire of the 21 they are currently in charge of.
Eight English authorities would have the Lib Dems as the largest party but not in overall control, according to the polling. Labour would not be in charge anywhere.
Of the 32 councils in the survey, 23 would not have any party with an overall, working majority.
