Reform UK is on course to gain two MPs in Kent at the next general election, according to current polling trends.

The party, led by Nigel Farage, could take Folkestone and Hythe and Sittingbourne and Sheppey, when the country goes to the polls in 2029, say pollsters at Electoral Calculus (EC).

EC, which takes all polling and processes other trends and data, shows a dramatic reversal in fortunes for the Conservatives.

The Tories lost all but six seats but would win in 12 of the 18 constituencies in the county if EC is correct.

Reform UK made waves last month by returning councillors to both Kent County Council (KCC) and Dartford Borough Council (DBC) after the death of independent Peter Harman.

Thomas Mallon, a 48-year-old Glaswegian, would have to defend his seat in six-months’ time at the KCC poll next year. He intends to stand again in Chatham & Aylesford at the next general election.

All eyes will be on those results as a sign of how much traction Reform UK has, although an expected shake-up in the structure of local government may have a bearing on all future polls.

Nationally, EC predicts Labour would be reduced from 412 seats to 311, the Conservatives from 121 to 207, the Liberal Democrats 72 to 68, Reform UK five to 12 and the Green Party to stay on four.

The Tories would take back Chatham & Aylesford, Gillingham and Rainham, Rochester and Strood, Gravesham, Ashford and Dartford from Labour.

EC says that it sees Dover & Deal, Thanet East and Canterbury all going to Labour, a net loss of eight. The Lib Dems would hold on strongly in Tunbridge Wells.

Electoral Calculus founder and chief executive Martin Baxter said: “The government hasn’t got off to a great start and the people are turning away from Labour already.

“You could say the mid-term blues have come early for Sir Keir Starmer.”

Mr Baxter said Reform UK is now seen as both a place for a protest vote but also as a serious entity.

He added: “As for the Conservative Party, the new leader Kemi Badenoch came in about a month ago and there has been a small bounce in their favour but I’d say the jury is still out on her and her leadership team.

“They probably think they have time to build momentum step by step without launching a lot of policies this early on.”

Keeping the seats in Kent may prove harder than the Tories imagined, particularly Maidstone and Malling and Faversham and Mid Kent whose MPs have both watched their majorities shrink from 20,000 plus to well under 2,000.

If EC polling is correct, the challenge at the next election will not come from Labour but Reform UK, even though both members are predicted to win.

Prof Richard Rose, of the University of Strathclyde, writes on the EC website: “The new Tory leader will find it doubly difficult to compete with Nigel Farage as the anti-establishment leader.

“The Tory leader will be burdened with the title and responsibilities of the Leader of His Majesty’s Opposition.

“Moreover, she will be burdened with a record established over 14 years of government, and then rejected by three-quarters of the electorate.”

Hear Thomas Mallon on the Kent Politics Podcast.