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As the lockdown on the UK continues to cause mayhem and queues of lorries are stacked up in Kent, could it lead to the Brexit negotiations going beyond December 31?
The convergence of the two issues of Covid and Brexit has placed the UK government and authorities under huge pressure as they try to mitigate the impact of the escalating crisis.
So, what are the potential options for Brexit? Political Editor Paul Francis sets out the possible options and a leading academic expert on international politics from the University of Kent, Professor Richard Whitman, gives his assessment.
Option: A deal before the end of the year
A deal is still possible before the ultimate deadline of the end of December. While that appears to be increasingly unlikely, the fact that the negotiations are going on at all does keep the door ajar.
If a deal is done, there could have to be a recall of Parliament to ratify it. But any deal will bring with it a huge amount of documents that MPs could be asked to scrutinise.
Professor Richard Whitman, Professor of Politics and International Relations at the University of Kent says: “There is nothing to stop talks and there will be plenty of issues to talk about.
"The legal implication is the end of the transition period rather than the end of the talks. The government decided not to legislate to extend the transition.
"The issue for me is can you conclude negotiations in enough time to allow for a provisional implementation of an agreement with ratification going into the next year?”
Option: An extension to the transition deadline
There's growing appetite for this among some but it has been ruled out by ministers. One issue is that it would probably require a new UK-EU treaty rather than an extension through the formal withdrawal agreement.
That would undoubtedly prove awkward on a political level and seems unlikely.
Option: There is a provisional deal which does not cover everything
This would also be a viable way forward - a trade agreement could be ratified even if it was not a complete one.
Professor Whitman says: “It is not unusual to have a provisional agreement with provisional agreements in it. It is the norm in trade talks to go for provisional acceptance of implementation. But will they do a deal before Christmas?”
Option: A provisional deal is struck but is not ratified by Parliament
Tricky. There is nothing to stop both sides backing a provisional agreement but ratification would still be needed by Parliament. “It wouldn't be a case of job done,” says Professor Whitman. "This is not a deal that would be foisted by one side on another."
Option: A deal is struck and it goes through Parliament before December 31
This is possible but one obstacle might be the time permitted for Parliamentary debate on the substance of any deal.
Would there be enough time between now and December 31 to recall Parliament and have a debate?
And with the current Covid-19 crisis, the government has arguably more pressing challenges.
Any agreement will run into hundreds of pages of detail on different clauses and different industry and business sectors.
Option: No deal
This is still very much a possibility as talks go down to the wire.
If there is no deal, one thing is certain: The UK will leave the EU single market and customs union at the end of transition period.
This would be the case whether or not there is a UK-EU agreement.
UK-EU trade will revert to World Trade Organisation rules and current arrangements in several areas will cease.
