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CYCLING fans anticipating the start of the 2007 Tour de France might care to draw up a bingo card of this year’s fancied riders and tick off those who fall by the wayside in the two months leading up to the race.
Trying to predict a winner at the moment is about as easy as attempting to ride a fixed-wheel bike up Boxley Hill, but by a process of elimination, we can at least remove a few suspects from our enquiries.
It won’t, for example, be American Floyd Landis, the "winner" of the 2006 race, whose subsequent positive drug test for testosterone shattered a sport already reeling from Operation Puerto, the Spanish Drug investigation that decimated the field just days before the start of last year’s race.
Puerto implicated over 50 riders in a blood-doping scandal and its highest profile casualties were the Italian Ivan Basso and Germany’s Jan Ullrich.
Basso, seen by many as the natural successor to Lance Armstrong, had just romped to victory in the Tour of Italy when he was linked to the breaking scandal and booted out of the race before he could turn a pedal in anger.
Last week he made a bizarre confession, denying he had ever been doped, but claiming:
"I have not done anything illegal. It was a moment of weakness on my part. I’ve never taken any doping substance or undergone any illegal transfusions."
Seemingly unaware he was contradicting himself, Basso went on to say: "I did admit having attempted to use doping for the (2006) Tour de France and I am ready to pay the penalty for that.
"All my wins have been achieved in a proper and clean manner and I have every intention of returning to action and continuing with the job I love once I have paid the penalty."
Let’s not bank on him returning anytime soon, although his chances are at least better than Ullrich’s, who used the more familiar script deployed by riders when they’ve been caught red-handed, saying: "I never once cheated as a cyclist."
When Ullrich won the 1997 Tour at the age of just 23 he was poised to dominate the sport for a decade, but instead of training he appeared to develop an addiction to pies. His career was derailed by a weight problem, recreational drugs (with startling originality he claimed his drink was spiked with speed) and finally Puerto.
He denied any wrongdoing, but his retirement appeared to be a pre-emptive strike, particularly when his DNA sample matched a bag of blood seized by the Spanish authorities, leaving him looking as guilty as a puppy sitting next to a pile.
So who’s left? Last year’s moral victor was the second-placed Oscar Pereiro, but he owed his success (still not ratified by Tour organisers) to a freak breakaway on the 13th stage, taking over 28 minutes on his rivals, enough for him to cling to the runners-up slot in Paris.
Having caught the field napping once, this year he’ll be a man marked by stronger riders, including German Andreas Kloden, third last year and the Spaniard Alessandro Valverde, arguably the sport’s most promising all-rounder.
Pitched out of the 2006 race by a broken collar bone, Valverde will be a favourite this time round if he steers clear of injury and scandal, as will the Italian Damiano Cunego, provided he doesn’t dip into his reserves too deeply during the Tour of Italy.
For a wild card keep an eye on the manic Alexandre Vinokourov, the most gloriously unhinged member of the peloton.
"Vino," Kazakhstan’s second most famous export, is the sport’s current showman, attacking relentlessly and riding with a grimace that makes him look like something trying to sink his teeth into Sigourney Weaver.
Robbed of the chance to compete last year when his team was booted out in the aftermath of the Puerto affair, Vino, who wasn’t implicated in the scandal, proved a point by going on to win the Tour of Spain.
At 33 he may not have time on his side, but he’ll either win or fail gloriously.
Only two British riders are likely to start in London. Time-trial specialst David Millar is the better bet for the overall standings, but has had a quiet spring.
Olympic Gold Medallist Bradley Wiggins may be timing his run to perfection, having just won the Prologue to the Four Days of Dunkirk.
Wiggins once used to race round the streets of Ashford as a junior - if he fulfills his potential and wins the Tour Prologue in London, he’ll return to Kent with the yellow jersey on his shoulders.