More on KentOnline
More on KentOnline
It will be the biggest poll for decades, with some 550 seats up for grabs across all parts of Kent - together with the Medway unitary council.
When these elections were last held, one of the big factors remained Brexit. Its influence on the results at a local level saw support for Conservative party slip and nationally, it lost 1,200 seats.
However, in Kent the losses it suffered were not enough to roll back the true blue Tory tide - with some exceptions. Six months later, the Conservative pledge to ‘get Brexit done’ helped the party to a decisive win at the general election, securing an 80-seat majority.
Fast forward to 2023 and the political landscape has changed and changed dramatically. Three Prime Ministers have been and gone; there has been the Covid pandemic and the ‘partygate’ scandal forced Boris Johnson out of Downing Street.
The cost-of-living crisis, spiralling energy costs, some of the highest council tax bills facing households,strikes and a fragile economy continue to put families and businesses under strain - as they do for hard-pressed councils.
Against this complex backdrop, a volatile electorate and a faltering economy, predictions of the outcome are all the more difficult.
If there is one issue that has sparked life into what has been a low-key campaign it is the David and Goliath battle over housing. So, how might the election pan out and what is at stake for councils as they battle for votes?
Are we likely to see true blue Tory heartland replaced by more rainbow alliances? Political editor Paul Francis gives his assessment.
Despite a 12.7% swing against it in 2019 and the loss of eight councillors, the Conservatives should either retain control or be in a position to run a minority administration. On paper, the second largest party is an independent group which has 11 members; followed by Labour with 7. The one notable success in 2019 was a breakthrough for the Green party, which won two seats.
It could build on that momentum.
Can the Conservatives hang on to control here? Some speculate that it is under pressure after losing outright control following defections in the closing weeks of the administration with only a slim majority before that point.
The prospects for Labour and other parties could depend to a certain extent on whether there is any enthusiasm for tactical voting, overcoming the problem of splitting the Labour, Liberal Democrat and Green vote.
The figures illustrate the conundrum: the Conservatives had 35% of the vote in 2019 but won 60% of the wards. Among local issues are the steep rise in car parking charges and inevitably, housing development encroaching on green field sites.
Under the populist leader Jeremy Kite, the Conservatives have held firm control here and are eyeing up another term in office. On paper, it did not fare quite as badly in 2019 as elsewhere in Kent - it saw a small swing towards it and had a 52.8% share of the vote compared to Labour’s 29.8%; the Conservatives lost five wards and Labour gained three.
Among candidates is ‘Britain First’ leader and right-wing figurehead Paul Golding.
Has been in Conservative hands for the best part of 20 years and although the gap between Labour and the Tories has closed, it would be a major coup if this was to fall to Labour. However, the continuing focus on the arrival of thousands of asylum seekers could be influential - the Labour party’s attack line is that the steady arrival of small boats illustrates the failure of government policy; for its part, the Conservatives are warning that the Labour position would see many more arrivals.
Then there is the issue of the all-too-frequent traffic lockdown in the town, caused by delays at the Port.
Folkestone and Hythe
Although the Conservatives lost nine seats and were reduced to 13 in 2019, it continued to run the council. What was remarkable was the success of the Green party, which went from no seats to six - a swing of 12.4% - and now has a representatives at the cabinet table. The success of the Greens suggests the party is the beneficiary of supporters leaving the Lib Dems - the traditional repository of protest votes.
There seems to be a new dynamic of selective tactical voting in play here, however, with the Lib Dems not fielding a candidate in the recent by-election in Hythe West, which was won by the Green candidate. Labour recovered some ground in 2019, going from just one councillor to six.
The big issue here is the controversial Otterpool development of 10,000 houses, which has split public opinion.
Labour is in control of the council and is pinning its hopes on staying there. The parliamentary constituency is often referred to as a ‘bellwether’ seat: whichever party wins at the general election here generally ends up taking the keys to Downing Street. Last time out, Labour took control from the Conservatives, winning 24 seats to 18; against the prevailing trend elsewhere. Since the 2019 vote, the Conservatives have picked up another councillor who had been an independent and edged towards Labour’s slim majority. The result here could be too close to call and may turn on turnout; but as a predominantly urban area, it could be Labour’s to lose.
This has a history of changing political leadership, with the Conservatives and Lib Dems both running the council at different times, usually because the council make-up has left it with no overall control. The council is now just one of two to have elections by thirds; meaning only one third of seats are contested three years out of four.
The council is currently under a minority Conservative administration; the Lib Dems are the second largest party and there is a 10-strong independent group.
At the 2022 election, the Conservatives fell back by two wards in the 18 up for grabs. Could the Lib Dems recover some ground to take charge?
A key issue across the borough is the familiar one of housing development, with opposition to a number of plans for thousands of new homes.
It became the first council in Kent to be run by a rainbow coalition, replacing the Conservatives who had been in control for 17 years up until 2019, when it lost 16 seats.
The losses deprived it of the numbers needed to continue in charge and gave the other parties the chance to run a joint administration, featuring no less than five parties. Despite some tensions, the coalition remained broadly intact, although the Green party representative walked out in a row over housing targets. Its current leader is Mike Baldock, who heads the Swale Independent group.
A key issue has been - and still is - the proliferation of house-building schemes planned by developers and resistance to development.
A by-word for traditional Tory heartland, the prospects of defeat for the party is about as likely as Elvis being found alive on the moon.
Admittedly, it did lose three councillors in 2019 but that still left it with 46 out of 54 wards with second-placed Liberal Democrats some distance behind with a miserly three and Labour with one.
While there are always a number of unexpected results in council elections, it is probably safe to say that Sevenoaks won’t be among them.
Like Sevenoaks, Tunbridge Wells used to be a Conservative stronghold. Changing demographics and the establishment of a non-political independent group succeeded in over-turning a two-decade period of uninterrupted dominance last year when it lost eight seats and made the Lib Dems the largest party. It now leads what it terms the borough partnership, an administration run by five different parties.
In local council elections, anything can happen and in Thanet, it often has. Its brief spell under the leadership of UKIP in 2015 was a first although when the bubble burst, it did so with a bang.
The party led by Nigel Farage imploded and in 2019, spectacularly managed to lose 33 seats. Meanwhile, Labour gained 16 seats - apparently the highest number gained by any party anywhere in the country. It left the council under no overall control but the Conservatives took on the role of leading the council.
After years in which Thanet politics was dominated by the fate of Manston airport perhaps it is no surprise that it still is - and is likely to remain so whatever the result.
Not quite as impregnable as Sevenoaks but not far off as one of Kent’s Tory power bases. In 2019, it actually lost nine seats, reducing its numbers to 39 - out of 54 available. The Liberal Democrats might not exactly be nipping at the heels of the Conservative Party but could improve on its performance last time around, particularly in view of a familiar theme, namely the arguments around housing development and the government targets.
If there is prize fight in Kent it is arguably the one for control of Medway council. This is pretty much a two-way tussle between Labour and the Conservatives, who unexpectedly prevailed last time when Labour had it in its sights.
But who could land the blow that floors the other? Labour is under pressure to produce a result for Keir Starmer, who chose to come to Medway on the first day of the campaign. A symbol of intent? Perhaps. What is not in doubt is that come the general election,possibly next year, Labour needs to be able to show that it has a winning formula that extends beyond Medway.
