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Kent general election: What will the main parties do for the county’s housing market?

If there is one topic in this general election likely to resonate in this county, it is surely housing.

And one thing you can be sure of - whoever wins the keys to 10 Downing Street - there will be no let-up in developments springing up around our towns and villages.

The number of new homes is likely only to accelerate under a new government
The number of new homes is likely only to accelerate under a new government

Because both the Conservative and Labour manifestos make it very clear: housebuilding will continue and in greater numbers than ever before.

Why? Because there is a national housing shortage. The population is growing and at pace. And Kent’s proximity to London and strong transport links mean the county is a popular place to move to.

To illustrate this, the county’s population, according to Kent County Council, is set to grow 13% from 2018 to 2030. The population in 2018 was 1.8m. The predicted rise would see an additional 235,820 living in the county.

All of whom will need homes.

Which is, make no mistake, good news in many ways for the county - certainly when it comes to economics. More homes means more people paying council tax, which swells the coffers of local authorities to spend on the services we all need. More people means more spending in our shops and high streets - fuelling the local economy.

Figures from last year reveal the number of homes in each Kent authority's Local Plan
Figures from last year reveal the number of homes in each Kent authority's Local Plan

There’s a greater employment pool too which can help attract companies to establish themselves in growing districts.

Plus, given Kent has plenty of construction industry in the county, housebuilding creates jobs.

On the flip side, of course, are question marks over the delivery of the necessary infrastructure to support these new communities such as additional school places in a county where many are already feeling the squeeze. Not to mention the loss of green and brownfield sites which many have become familiar with.

Many dovetail with other issues - such as a shortage of GPs or NHS dental services. Problems out of the hands of developers and local authorities but key to the concerns of many.

“Both the main political parties,” says Will Walsh, Kent managing director of major house-builders Barratt and David Wilson, “are aware housing is a core issue, not just for the social aspect and aspiration people have to get on the housing ladder, but also for economic growth as well.

Will Walsh - MD of housebuilders Barratt David Wilson Kent
Will Walsh - MD of housebuilders Barratt David Wilson Kent

“When the construction industry is really going, that contributes to a growing economy. I think any government, come July, will be looking at how to get the industry firing.”

Certainly, the housing sector has experienced a rollercoaster ride in recent years.

Post-pandemic, amid fears the market would remain stagnant, our desperation to flee cities and town centres, coupled with the widespread uptake of hybrid working, after the lockdown, saw Barratt and David Wilson experience the sort of sale surge not experienced since 2007 - just before the financial crash.

But no sooner had it settled, came the notorious Liz Truss mini-Budget.

“The market fell away drastically,” says Will Walsh of its impact. “The interest rate rises made affordability the key issue over the last 18-20 months. That combined with the end of the Help to Buy scheme meant you had this perfect storm to almost kill the housing market.”

The number of new builds in Kent between 2017 to 2022
The number of new builds in Kent between 2017 to 2022

And those hit hardest were the much-discussed first-time buyer.

“But,” the developer adds, “the country needs housing and affordable housing delivery is the most important point.

“It's all very well saying the right thing. Both the Tories and Labour are saying they want to build 1.5m over five years - but how are we actually going to do that? Unlocking the planning system would be key to achieving that.”

He points to a lack of staff within local authorities meaning huge delays in land being acquired to work starting. Often, he says, the process can take “many, many years”.

Before we look at what the main parties are promising, let’s look at housing targets as they are generally the headline figure. Since 2017 - and forming part of its 2019 manifesto pledges - the Tories have set a figure of 300,000 a year for England by the mid-2020s. Although Rishi Sunak announced he was phasing these out in 2022.

Housebuilding remains a necessity - but still creates plenty of local controversy
Housebuilding remains a necessity - but still creates plenty of local controversy

It’s England only, as the devolved governments determine housing targets for the likes of Wales and Scotland.

This figure from the Tories relates not simply to new homes but is defined as “net additional dwellings”, so into that figure will be fed houses turned into flats and office buildings converted into homes.

You may not be surprised to learn that figure has never been met.

The highest it hit, in 2019-20, was a little under 250,000. The pandemic didn’t help things, but last year the figure stood at around 231,100.

Kent and Medway has seen work on 53,000 new homes over the last decade - but such were the government targets, KentOnline reported last year the county would need to see 1,000 a month built to achieve the original targets set.

Rishi Sunak scrapped housing targets - but has vowed to build even more. Picture by Edward Massey / CCHQ
Rishi Sunak scrapped housing targets - but has vowed to build even more. Picture by Edward Massey / CCHQ

In their manifesto, the Tories are pledging to build 1.6 million homes during the course of the next five-year parliament. Which would mean 320,000 a year - some 100,000 more for England than the current level.

One way they intend to accelerate housebuilding - and of relevance to Kent - is to abolish ‘nutrient neutrality’ rules.

These rules - imposed by Natural England and originally enshrined in EU regulations - were designed to protect rivers and wetlands from additional pollution. In other words, all new developments must not add to the pollution levels.

But following concerns over high levels of pollution at Stodmarsh nature reserve, near Canterbury, in 2020, the brakes were applied to a host of development plans across east Kent - encompassing areas of Ashford, Canterbury, Thanet, Folkestone & Hythe, Dover, Deal and Maidstone.

It’s an issue Will Walsh says needs to be addressed: “We want to see something around unblocking that. We have outline planning permission for around 1,000 homes but we can't because we haven't a solution to nitrate neutrality.”

Sir Keir Starmer arrives at Priestfield with Angela Rayner to launch Labour’s general election campaign in May
Sir Keir Starmer arrives at Priestfield with Angela Rayner to launch Labour’s general election campaign in May

The Tories are proposing to “unlock the building of 100,000 new homes” by requiring developers to “pay a one-off mitigation fee so there is no net additional pollution”.

They are also pledging to renew the Affordable Homes Programme - a scheme which provides grant funding to support the capital costs of developing affordable housing in England.

Labour, meanwhile, is more forthright in its approach and its view on the Nimby-ism which so frequently rears its head around the county as new housing plans are announced.

It says its shake-up of the planning system will ensure all local authorities have up-to-date Local Plans - which provides a long-term vision of where suitable land is for housing, among other issues. Adding while still allowing local community input into proposed developments, it “will not be afraid to make full use of intervention powers to build the houses we need”.

It is committing to 1.5m homes over the course of the next parliament. It will also bring back mandatory housing targets for each area. Plus it is vowing to address that issue of a shortage of planning officers in local authorities by funding more.

Who will win the race to Westminster?
Who will win the race to Westminster?

They’ll also commit to expanding the existing Mortgage Guarantee Scheme - which is set to conclude at the end of June 2025 - rebranding it ‘Freedom to Buy’.

The Lib Dems, in their manifesto, want to up that overall target figure to 380,000 “new homes a year” - and include “150,000 social homes a year”. They would be delivered “through new garden cities and community-led development of cities and towns”.

They pledge to build “10 new garden cities”. Think Ebbsfleet Garden City which will, once complete, boast 15,000 new homes.

Reform UK is pledging to reform social housing - primarily by prioritising ‘local’ people, adding “foreign nationals must go to the back of the queue”. Meanwhile, the Greens are vowing to “provide 150,000 new social homes a year and end the so-called ‘right to buy’, so that these homes can belong to communities for ever”.

Will it bring prices down? It might. More homes would mean more choice and in a supply and demand economy, that should see, at least, a slowdown in price growth. Kent’s popularity with those moving out of London, however, is unlikely to see our house prices start to decline.

The housing market has been on a rollercoaster ride over recent years
The housing market has been on a rollercoaster ride over recent years

But it’s not all just about buying homes.

The rental market has always been significant, but has become more so as the costs of buying a house have lifted way above the outstretched arms of many.

And it too is facing the same challenges.

“Over the last 18 months, it's been pretty much the status quo in so much that there is a severe shortage of rental stock,” explains Spencer Fortag of Rochester-based Dockside Property Services.

“I think most, if not all, political parties seem to be somewhat out of touch and think that everybody in their 20s wants to buy their own home.

Spencer Fortag says renters - as well as buyers - need additional protections
Spencer Fortag says renters - as well as buyers - need additional protections

“Ultimately, that may be their long-term goal, but a lot of the 20-somethings we're engaging with and are our clients, that's just not on their radar right now. They like the flexibility rental offers them.

“We’re seeing something of a paradigm shift. Whereas maybe 20 to 25 years ago, renting a property was seen as a last resort option, now for lots of people it's the preferred option.

“We don't have the stability in the work market and people like that flexibility where they can move freely.”

But that sparsity of properties means competition is more intense and, inevitably, prices rise as a result.

A report on KentOnline last year revealed the number of properties available to rent for less than £1,000 a month in the county had almost halved.

Housebuilding has slowed since the Liz Truss budget saw interest rates soar
Housebuilding has slowed since the Liz Truss budget saw interest rates soar

Landlords have been hit with several rule changes in recent years which haven’t helped matters either.

One such move was to abolish the ability to claim tax relief on interest on a landlord’s mortgage, if the property was purchased under their own name (rather than a company). This, says Mr Fortag, saw their margins shrink and the extra costs incurred passed on in rent hikes.

He explains: “Rental prices are high and that's driven by a number of factors - notably lack of stock. But also the landlord bashing the current government has handed out over the last five years.

“So, you can no longer claim all of your mortgage interest as a tax-deductible expense and as a result that landlord is now earning less and they'll seek to recover those costs incurred by putting rents up.

“Interest rates are another factor.”

Another is the Renters Reform Bill which was making its way through parliament. Crucially, it included the abolition of Section 21 - more frequently referred to as ‘no-fault evictions’. This is where landlords can serve notice on tenants without needing to provide any reason. It leaves many facing uncertain futures in a market where affordable properties are sparse.

However, it was one of a number of key policies derailed by Rishi Sunak’s decision to call a general election and has now fallen by the wayside.

“People who rent are in a precarious position,” explains Chris Thomas, spokesperson for the Canterbury-based homelessness charity Porchlight, “and they need safety and security right now. It's worrying these protections that were promised to them have just disappeared.

“Renting has to be safe, it has to be secure, it has to be affordable for everyone.

“When the new government comes in, this really does have to be among their top priorities. On July 5 we want people to be thinking about this - whoever makes up the next government.

“We should have scrapped no-fault evictions years ago. The rental market has become so competitive now and the prices so high, it's really difficult to get another property.

Mass housebuilding projects such as this at Ebbsfleet Garden City are likely to be replicated elsewhere under a new government
Mass housebuilding projects such as this at Ebbsfleet Garden City are likely to be replicated elsewhere under a new government

“It's fuelling this homelessness and housing crisis which we're seeing across the country.”

So what would help ease the rental market going forward?

Adds Spencer Fortag: “What I’d like to see is the introduction of landlord passports, from a tenant protection perspective. The onus is always on the tenant to provide references. Why shouldn't the landlord prove they are good landlords and look after their tenants?

“I'd also like to see the reintroduction of the requirement for an approved letting agent if you are on a buy-to-let mortgage. Back in the old days, mortgage companies would only let you rent out your property if you were using an accredited agent. By doing so, that offers greater protection to both landlords and tenants.”

As for the main parties, the Lib Dems are promising “a fair deal for renters” by immediately banning ‘no-fault evictions’, making three-year tenancies the default and creating a national register of licensed landlords. The Greens say they will also bring the curtain down on Section 21 while giving local authorities the power to “control rents if the local rental market is overheated”. They are also pushing for long-term leases to provide renters greater security.

The Tories, meanwhile, are vowing to revive and pass the Renters Reform Bill “that will deliver fairness in the rental market for landlords and renters alike”.

Conversely, Reform UK, say they’ll scrap the Renters Reform Bill saying existing legislation was suitable but adding “we will boost the monitoring, appeals and enforcement process”.

Labour, meanwhile, while scant on detail in its manifesto as to the issue of rented properties, has said it stands committed to abolishing ‘no-fault evictions’.

If you dream of the county taking its foot off the gas when it comes to housebuilding, you will - whatever party emerges triumphant on July 5 - be disappointed.

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