Voters go to the polls on Thursday, June 4, for an election that will determine who will hold the reins of power at the country’s second largest authority.
KM Grouppolitical editor Paul Francisgives his assessment of the party’s prospects ahead of next month’s vital poll.

The main parties

Conventional political wisdom has it that elections are lost rather than won.

In the case of the Kent County Council election on June 4, that maxim seems unlikely to apply.

With the Conservatives already firmly in control at County Hall and Labour nationally in disarray, many people predict that on June 4, the local government map of Kent will be turning a much deeper shade of blue.

The Conservatives, who hold 57 of the 84 seats up for grabs across the whole county, are in an understandably buoyant mood.

While party candidates and activists might be doing their best to rein in their upbeat mood, the party has legitimate grounds for its optimism.

The election will take place against the backdrop of a Labour government on the back foot over a series of controversial issues; the huge row over MPs’ allowances and a Prime Minister whose authority is increasingly being questioned.

The retreat over the issue of allowing the Ghurkas to stay in the UK is an issue that has added resonance in Kent, where many soldiers are based.

Privately, some Labour figures admit they are braced for a dismal result that if truly bad could even see Gordon Brown’s tenure as party leader brought to a juddering halt.

The Conservatives have other grounds for being confident. For the first time since the early 1990s, the county council election is taking place without a general election taking place at the same time.

Useful links:

• Who's standing in your area?
• What does Kent's political map look like now - after the last election in May 2005?

As a result, Labour is likely to have much more difficulty getting its supporters out with the party nationally plummeting in the polls. Local elections are about local issues but are notorious for being occasions when voters take the chance to give their verdict on the current gvernment’s performance.

Against the backdrop of recent revelations, all three main parties will be concerned at the possibility they will be punished by a resentful electorate who will simply choose to stay at home.

KCC Conservative leader Paul Carter describes the polls as being of “enormous signficance” and is leading a campaign based around what he says is the authority’s track record and its rating as one of the country’s best performing authorities.

Although he rejects the claim that its reputation has been dented by the on-going saga of the £50million KCC has tied up in Icelandic banks and recent headlines about top officers’ pay, both are issues that could cost valuable votes.

Cllr Dr Mike Eddy, the Labour group leader, concedes his party is fighting an election at an awkward time but is focusing heavily on what he sees as KCC’s mismanagement of taxpayers’ money.

“The situation could be easier but I do not think the Labour government was the cause of the collapse of the sub-prime mortgage market. If the people of Kent decide they want the Conservatives in charge to waste more of their money, then I feel very sorry for them,” he says.

He insists there are pockets of the county where the party could make gains but accepts the party will do well to hold on to the 19 seats it currently has.

For the Liberal Democrats, the smallest of the three parties on KCC, the election represents a chance to capitalise on public disaffection among Labour supporters and those not yet persuaded that David Cameron’s Conservative party has really changed.

“It is certainly a chance for us to take votes from Labour. It is clear to us that many people are unhappy with the performance of the gvernment, particularly in the last few weeks. It is also the case that a lot of people are very cross about the Icelandic money and top officers’ pay,” says group leader Cllr Trudy Dean.

Whatever the outcome, the results will have far wider significance than just who holds power at County Hall.

All the main parties will be pouring over the figures to see just what it might all mean come the national election. And if the polls are right, the Conservatives could be poised to become the dominant force in Kent they once were under Margaret Thatcher.

The smaller parties

With disillusion with the main parties running high, some of the smaller parties may feel their prospects of breaking their grip on Kent county council have been enhanced.

However, with a first-past-the-post voting system in place, the task of loosening the stranglehold of the three main parties may yet prove to be too much of a challenge.

The Green Party is fielding a record number of 35 candidates, in west Kent, Swale, Ashford, Canterbury and Sevenoaks. But the party is playing down suggestions that 2009 could be the year that it finally finds its way on to the county council.

Spokesman Steve Dawe, who is standing in Tonbridge, says: “Our vote will go up but in terms of actually cracking some of these huge Conservative majorities, that will be difficult. The first-past-the-post system works against us.”

UKIP, which is doing increasingly well in the polls for the European elections, are also fielding candidates, including five in Maidstone and six in Shepway.

Its manifesto pledges include stopping KCC from setting up its own commercial companies; capping senior officers’ salaries and scrapping Kent TV, the authority’s controversial internet TV station.

Also standing are 23 candidates for the English Democrats party, which wants to see an English parliament established. Six are standing in Dartford and seven in Tonbridge and Malling.

The BNP is also fielding a small number of candidates in Ashford and Thanet and Shepway.

Election countdown – the key dates

• Tuesday May 19: Last day for requests to be included on Register of Electors and last day for postal vote requests
• Thursday June 4: Polling day, 7am to 10pm
• Friday June 5: Election count. Results expected in the morning.