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People not sticking to social distancing could see more Covid-19 patients over the summer than levels in the first wave at a Kent hospital trust, documents have revealed.
Scenarios for Covid-19 bed occupancy, based on forecasts provided by the Kent and Medway Clinical Commissioning Group, were laid out ahead of a Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells (MTW) NHS Trust board meeting today.
One scenario predicted a third wave in the coming months.
Between April 20 and May 20 last year, occupancy rates reached nearly 100 before falling. Rates then climbed again during November and December, peaking at 334 in early January.
A report prepared for MTW board members reads: "Current forecasts have a ‘reasonably optimistic’ scenario peaking at a Covid positive occupancy of 50-100 over the summer.
"Poorer adherence to social distancing brings it up to 100-150, and does so sooner.
"However, this scenario sees the pandemic start to burn itself out sooner as the percentage of the population with resistance to the virus, either from vaccination or prior infection, hits the critical 70-75% ‘herd immunity’ level."
The "worst case scenario" is a 10% reduction in vaccine efficacy, either from poorer uptake, supply problems or more resistant mutations.
The reduction would see occupancy back in the 150- 200 levels, the report said, adding: "any further reductions would send rates even higher, and delay the population reaching herd immunity."
A graph in the report set out three scenarios, the first- optimistic, was based on lockdown relaxations and the vaccination programme proceeding according to government plans.
The second was a mid-range forecast, which took poor social distancing into account. The final scenario was pessimistic, with a 10% reduction in the vaccine programme's effectiveness.
Actual admissions are currently tracking below the most optimistic scenario generated, the report said, but added: "however, the scenarios are extremely sensitive to public behaviour and the effectiveness of the vaccine, so it would not take much to change this."
Referring to the second wave, when occupancy rates peaked at 334, which exceeded worst case scenario forecasts at the time, the report said: "The new, more infectious variant had not been recognised at that point, and change in trajectory of community infection rates did not become visible until the third week of December."
Lucy Shaw, 18, from Aylesford, is a clinical support worker at Maidstone Hospital and has been caring for patients with Covid-19 since the start of the pandemic.
When she first joined the hospital at 16 she was placed on the orthopaedic ward but was then moved to the Covid-19 ward.
Her role is to support the other nursing staff and doctors by providing care and support to patients and their relatives.
To mark a year since national lockdown, she spoke about her experience on a Covid ward and witnessing the waves referred to in the report first hand.
Lucy said: "One of the hardest things was limiting visitors to protect our patients, as a result the nursing staff effectively became their family - often sitting with them and supporting them during what was the hardest time of their life.
"Seeing the trust’s first Covid patient being discharged from our care is something I’ll never forget.
Lucy Shaw describes what she has experienced during the pandemic
"Whilst I’ve learnt so much over the past year, it’s also been an emotional rollercoaster.
"As well as working through the pandemic I have also lost loved ones to coronavirus.
"It’s fair to say it’s been a tough year but without my team on the ward it could have been so much harder. We all support each other."
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