Maidstone council is wrong to regard its “objectively assessed” housing need figure of 18,600 homes as set in stone, argues planning consultant Richard Wadey.

Mr Wadey, from Upper Fant Road, Maidstone, has looked again at the Strategic Housing Market Assessment that Maidstone Borough Council has used to set its housing target for the next Local Plan, and said it was wrong for the assessment to be submitted without any indication of the degree of certainty attached to the predicted figures.

Only a quarter of the housing need was derived from “natural population growth” - the difference between births and deaths, which could be predicted with some reliability. The other three-quarters of the housing need all comes from a prediction of net inward migration - for which there could be very little certainty attached.

The prediction of 18,600 homes was only one figure in a range of possible figures between 12,600 and 21,600 homes, depending on the assumptions made.

Mr Wadey’s report illustrates how, if Maidstone council had made exactly the same assumptions based on the data in 2006, it would have determined a need for 6,949 fewer homes by the year 2026, compared with the need estimated in the current assessment using figures from 2011.

Mr Wadey, who has decades of experience assessing how population growth and housing expansion would impact on the provision of health services and social care for local authorities and the NHS, said that further evidence was needed to pin down where the likely outcome of housing need fell within the wide range of options available.

He suggested the evidence was found by looking at Maidstone’s past levels of housing construction and population growth.

Looking at the average household size - how many people lived in each property - the figures for the past 12 years suggested that house-building in the borough had lagged only slightly behind the population growth.

Mr Wadey said: “We see that the previous average of 675 housing completions per year was not quite sufficient to meet the housing need.

“The figures suggest the supply needs to increase by 4% per annum. Housing need and supply would be brought into balance at 700 homes per annum.

“If we allow a safety margin, and increase this to 720 homes per annum, that suggests the council needs to plan for 14,400 new homes across the plan period of 20 years to 2031 - not the 18,600 currently being pursued.”

Maidstone Borough Council’s principal planning officer Sarah Anderton said: “Mr Wadey’s review of previous completion rates with the intention of testing the extent demand has been met in the past is flawed.

“Historic completion rates are not a measure of the demand for housing. They were fundamentally influenced by the planning regime in place at the time.

“Prior to the National Planning Policy Framework, local plans did not have to provide for the full demand or need for housing.

“Previous rates cannot therefore be assumed to reflect demand.”

However Kent County Council has already suggested that a target of around 14,000 new homes is the maximum that could be supported by Maidstone’s present or potential infrastructure.

Mrs Anderton acknowledged: “The objectively assessed need figure for new homes is the ’unconstrained’ figure.

“It represents how many new homes are needed.

“It is separate and distinct from the number of new homes which should be planned for once development constraints have been taken into account. This lower figure will be the housing target which will be included in the council’s Local Plan in due course.”

*A full copy of Mr Wadey’s report can be obtained by sending an email request to rjwhousing@gmail.com