Ukip leader Nigel Farage says there is every chance his party can pull off a shock win in the Rochester and Strood by-election following a poll putting it ahead of the Conservatives by nine points.

The poll, commissioned by the Mail On Sunday, gave the party a boost but has been dismissed by the Conservatives, who will begin a search for their candidate to contest the seat this week.

Mr Farage said: “The poll is very encouraging indeed for us and shows that many voters are listening to our message. It does put us in a strong position but there is absolutely no complacency from us.”

Ukip is reported to have done its own private polling shortly before the Rochester and Strood MP announced his defection to reassure him that he was not going to commit career suicide.

The Survation poll was not all good news for Ukip, with a low poll rating for Mark Reckless, which indicated that only 12% of people would vote because they liked him.

Mr Farage said that he would not have expected the former Conservative MP to enjoy the same level of personal support as defector Douglas Carswell has in Clacton, where a by-election will be held this week.

“He [Mark Reckless] has only been an MP for four years. If we win Clacton on Thursday (9), the old argument that a vote for Ukip is a wasted vote is holed below the water line.”
Survation chief executive Damian Lyons-Lowe said: “If our polling, representing a snapshot of opinion taken in Rochester & Strood between October 1st-3rd reflects the final outcome of the by-election, the Conservative Party will be deeply worried.”

The Conservatives are expected to mount a major campaign in the constituency, believing it has a good chance of retaining the seat.