UK inflation is expected to have eased back in February in the “calm before the storm” of bill hikes setting in next month.

The Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation data on Wednesday, the same day the Chancellor will deliver her spring statement to Parliament.

Most analysts think Consumer Prices Index (CPI) inflation will come in at 2.9% for February, down from the 3% recorded for January.

It would mean the rate remains above the Bank of England’s 2% target.

Economists think lower rent inflation will be a big factor pulling down the overall inflation rate, as price rises on available homes continue to ease.

Plane fares could also have risen less sharply in February, following a rebound the previous month, although there may be some volatility with prices being hiked during the school half term, experts suggested.

February should be the calm before the storm of annual price resets, as Government-set price hikes and tax rises drive up headline CPI inflation to 3.5% in April

On the other hand, hotel costs are expected to have jumped higher last month, putting pressure on the overall inflation rate.

Cinema, live music and theatre prices are all forecast to have risen in February.

The latest ONS data will come on the same day that Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers her spring statement, where she is expected to announce spending cuts for some Government departments.

Signs of easing inflation could come as good news to Ms Reeves amid efforts to bring down the cost of living.

However, experts have cautioned that the tide is set to turn next month when prices for the new tax year come into effect, on bills such as energy, water and council tax.

“February should be the calm before the storm of annual price resets, as Government-set price hikes and tax rises drive up headline CPI inflation to 3.5% in April,” said Robert Wood and Elliott Jordan-Doak, senior UK economists for Pantheon Macroeconomics.

They think inflation will peak in September – but the risk of future pressure has risen as firms have indicated that they could pass higher taxes on to customers through price rises.

Sanjay Raja, senior economist for Deutsche Bank, said CPI inflation for this month will likely be pushed lower.

“But thereafter, we see a steep ascent in price pressures, with headline CPI peaking near 4% year-on-year in September,” he said.

“The good news is that we still expect inflationary pressures to slowly subside, dropping to around 2% in the first half of 2026.

“But upside risks to our 2026 projections are rising.”