A technique for predicting where seabirds fly and forage that is twice as accurate as existing methods could transform offshore windfarm planning, scientists have announced.

Researchers at the University of Glasgow said the new tool was 73% accurate in predicting the ways seabirds use the space around their colonies – their “home ranges” – compared with accuracy levels of 41% and 31% for existing methods.

Seabird assessment tools are used to inform planning decisions for offshore windfarms, because of the impact the installations can have on seabird populations.

The study team said that because they are less accurate, existing methods may end up with windfarms being built in areas of high bird density, or result in plans being rejected due to overestimates of seabirds.

Many seabird colonies are located at remote islands or cliffs that make GPS tracking studies extremely challenging or even impossible

They said providing a more accurate picture of seabirds’ home ranges will therefore enable “much more informed decisions” about offshore windfarm plans.

The new modelling tool is also the first of its kind to be able to accurately predict seabird home ranges without relying on GPS tracking data, which is often not available due to the remote location of many seabird colonies.

Jana Jeglinski, research fellow and co-supervisor of the study, said: “Many seabird colonies are located at remote islands or cliffs that make GPS tracking studies extremely challenging or even impossible.

“Our method can predict biologically realistic home ranges and exposure for such inaccessible colonies and it can also forecast future home ranges given the size of a colony – this is important since offshore windfarm construction will drastically increase in the near future.”

The researchers explained that seabirds’ home ranges cover local areas at sea around colonies, and vary in size depending on colony size and location.

They said “central-place foragers” like seabirds are therefore particularly sensitive to “environmental stressors” in their local surroundings – including wind farms, which they said may have “severe impacts” on colony numbers and wellbeing.

Lead author and PhD student, Holly Niven, said: “Accurate estimation of the impacts of offshore wind farms and other stressors on seabirds can help us make more informed decisions about offshore wind farm plans and protect the species living around our coasts.”

The researchers said the modelling tool could also be used to accurately predict the “space use” of other colony-based wildlife, including seals, bats and bees.

Jason Matthiopoulos, professor of spatial and population ecology, said: “Ironically, different environmentally positive activities such as wildlife conservation and our progress towards green energy can come into conflict with each other.

“Resolving these conflicts relies on good data, but equally, on state-of-the-art computer modelling techniques.”

The accuracy of the new technique was tested using GPS tracking data from eight northern gannet colonies.

The study, entitled towards biologically realistic estimates of home range and spatial exposure for colonial animals, is published in the journal Methods in Ecology and Evolution.

It was led by researchers at the University of Glasgow, and was funded by the UK Government Department for Energy Security & Net Zero Offshore Energy Strategic Environmental Assessment OESEA programme.