Few politicians have had the opportunity to declare they are winning in the battle to get on top of unlawful Channel crossings by asylum seekers.

So today’s speech and visit by the Prime Minister to Dover is a significant political moment because for the first time in the last few years, the relentless upward trend in the numbers detained in small boats has seemingly been stemmed.

Analysis set out by the PM suggests the numbers crossing in small boats have declined by 20%, albeit from a record high point.

Which goes a long way to account for his enthusiasm to come to Dover to announce that, in his view, the government’s crackdown on illegal crossings is working.

It goes without saying that had there been a rise in crossings, the last place the PM would have been found is Dover.

But let’s give the government some credit: the fall is a fairly hefty one - although pressed on why he had decided on a visit to Dover at this particular point, his answer that he had promised to provide us all with an update was fairly lame.

However, it is worth pointing out that one reason the numbers are falling is the surge in illegal migrants from Albania - a relatively new phenomenon - has fallen away to a point where figures suggest they now account for just 1% of those crossing the Channel.

The government faces a tougher nut to crack on three other fronts: it has yet to make major inroads when it comes to dealing with the criminal gangs behind people smuggling from other countries; the proposed Illegal Migration Bill continues to face opposition from MPs and Peers; and third, curbing the use of hotels to accommodate would-be asylum seekers.

Under the change to the law, illegal migrants will be detained and either returned to their home country or to a safe country where any asylum claims will be promptly considered.

The drop in numbers announced today is important but not quite full vindication of government policy: that will be measured against whether the numbers will continue to fall.

And some questioned whether the fall might just be linked to the unfavourable weather conditions that have prevailed in recent weeks.

The Prime Minister will know exactly what is at stake if he fails to deliver on one of his key pledges ahead of a general election, which is why he has chosen to capitalise on the current numbers now.

The optics of having more than 45,000 asylum seekers accommodated in hotels across 200 local authorities, at huge cost to the public purse, are not a good backdrop for would-be Conservative MPs to be able to claim the party is ‘gripping’ the issue.

The PM will have calculated that if the measures already in place are having an impact, all things being equal, the decline is likely to continue.

And if that’s the case, no doubt he will be making a return visit to tell us all about it.