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Political editor Paul Francis gives his opinion on Nigel Farage's threatened comeback amid a lack of Brexit dividends...
As political barometers go, there is one reading that terrifies the Conservative party: when the needle points to a threat by former Ukip leader Nigel Farage to stage a political comeback.
True, we have been here before. Farage has had more comebacks than Frank Sinatra but is he out of tune with voters?
The latest threat to re-enter politics is based on – what else – his disillusionment with the lack of a Brexit dividend since voters delivered their verdict in the historic referendum in 2016.
He has a point. To misquote Lewis Carroll, it’s a case of jam yesterday, jam tomorrow but never jam today. Or so far as leaving the EU is concerned, no jam at all at any point in the near future.
Brexit was supposed to be the starting point for the UK to become a high-earning, low tax economy with the freedom to negotiate deals with whoever we wanted.
The one deal the UK has negotiated – with Australia and New Zealand – doesn’t appear to be all it was cracked up to be. Even the minister in charge of the trade agreement has had misgivings. George Eustice, now out of government, told the Commons the deal “was not actually a very good deal” and “gave away far too much for too little in return.”
'Nigel Farage's reappearance might, after four years, lead some to question if Brexit has been worth it...'
Hardly a ringing endorsement.
Closer to home, it has not exactly been a case of the county becoming a post-Brexit land of milk and honey.
The focus on the daily images of small boats and dinghies arriving on Kent’s shores has reinforced the scepticism that Brexit has delivered control of our borders. Instead, the government is showering the French with millions of pounds to try and break-up the criminal gangs involved in people smuggling and seems incapable of curbing the numbers taking the perilous journey.
Meanwhile, the leader of Dover council warned the government in graphic terms of the danger of not implementing physical checks on foodstuffs entering the UK via the Channel ports.
Cllr Trevor Bartlett wrote to the Prime Minister to say checks were needed to prevent the “devastating consequences of another animal health or food safety catastrophe, such as the foot and mouth outbreak in 2001 which cost the public sector £3bn and the private sector £5bn or the 2013 horsemeat scandal, deemed the biggest food fraud of the 21st century".
He got a reply from the ironically titled ‘Brexit Opportunities’ minister Jacob Rees-Mogg, who did the equivalent of sticking his hands over his ears and saying ‘can’t hear you, can’t hear you’.
So, the question for Farage is whether or not his re-entry into the political stratosphere will change anything?
After eight attempts, including his infamous stab at winning the Thanet South seat, contesting another general election is improbable.
The Reform party he co-created would give him a platform and, regardless of whether you like him or loathe him, his political guile and populist approach make him a danger to all the mainstream parties.
A return to the frontline politics just might be sabre-rattling but is a threat that puts the wind up his opponents.
On the other hand, his reappearance might, after four years, lead some to question if it has all been worth it.
Brexit got done.
But progress since has been as slow as traffic moving along the stretch of the M20 given over to Operation Brock.
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