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The Kent MP vying to become Conservative Party leader will find out today if he has done enough to swing round enough MPs to keep him in the race or if his bid has come to an end.
Tonbridge and Malling MP Tom Tugendhat has proved popular with voters and has performed well in TV hustings but his fate rests with the 350-odd MPs who will determine which two candidates should go out to a poll of party members over the summer.
A snap poll after a second live televised hustings on Sunday again placed him above all but one of the five contenders.
A poll by Opinium of 1,001 people who watched the debate shows Rishi Sunak won, with 24% of those surveyed thinking he performed best, followed by Tom Tugendhat (19%).
Penny Mordaunt got 17%, followed by Liz Truss (15%) and Kemi Badenoch (12%).
But a third televised hustings, due to broadcast tomorrow has been cancelled by Sky after candidates Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak said they did not want to take part. There has been concern that the debates are damaging the party's image.
But he is the candidate who had the backing of the lowest number of MPs in the last round and is, on paper, most at risk of being eliminated.
And he has continued to face questions about his lack of ministerial experience - questions that he has countered by pointing to his decade-long military career and service in Afghanistan and Iraq.
This issue appears to be why some of his parliamentary colleagues in Kent have declined to back him.
Gordon Henderson, the Sittingbourne and Sheppey MP, said: "Tom has many qualities but he has had no experience in government whatsoever."
Tugendhat was the only candidate who, when asked on an earlier hustings if they believed Boris Johnson was honest, shook his head to indicate he did not.
He has also ruled out an election if he was to win, saying on a hustings televised by ITV: “We were elected on a manifesto and I intend to deliver it.” He again underlined he offered a “clean break” from the past and questioned Boris Johnson’s account of his involvement is ‘partygate’ saying it was “more fictional than factual.”
MPs will vote later today on who they want to succeed Boris Johnson, with the results due about 8pm.
The candidate with the fewest votes will automatically be eliminated.