MY MOVIE WEEK with Mike Shaw

Best Film

Just a few short weeks ago, Lincoln had this award all sewn up. There was no way Silver Linings Playbook (a romcom on Prozac) was going to win, and Django Unchained felt like a novelty nomination, but then came the Golden Globes, the Baftas, the Screen Actors’ Guild Awards and Argo suddenly became a real contender.

For me, the winner ought to be Life of Pi, but Lincoln is genetically-engineered Oscar-bait. The Academy loves scenery-chewing and method acting, and gosh darn it, it loves America. CGI tigers, it’s less keen on.

At the moment, the odds are heavily in Argo’s favour, and that’s because of other awards. The world is catching on to what a great film it is, and the Academy may want to make up for not giving Affleck a Best Director nod by handing over this statue. This is by no means a done deal though, and for that reason, I’m playing it safe.

Will win: Lincoln

Could win: Argo

Should win: Life of Pi

Best Director

Again, Lincoln and Steven Spielberg have been all over this category, but as time wears on, other titles are getting more of a look in, and chatter is about Life of Pi and Ang Lee.

This category is a two-horse race. Lincoln is a heavy-going, important ‘history film’, which tackles a complicated story and is packed with excellent performances. Pi is the most successful film ever at tying CGI and real-life together, and feels more like one man’s made reality.

I’d love for this to go the way of Ang Lee, but ultimately, the Academy’s conservative side is more dominant, so I think Spielberg will take this one.

Will win: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Could win: Michael Haneke, Amour

Should win: Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Best Actor

Day-Lewis has won almost every single precursor out there and – just like in Lincoln’s other categories – the Academy loves America. WOOOOO! USA! USA! If Day Lewis wins, he’ll be the first man to to take Best Actor home three times, cementing his reputation as one of the all-time greats. But he is. Who is going to beat him? Hugh Jackman was good in Les Mis, but not perfect (as acting went, Russell Crowe was better), Joaquin Phoenix in The Master was great, but the film mocks Scientology so that’s not going to win anything, and Bradley Cooper’s nomination for Silver Linings Playbook feels like a cruel joke.

Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Could win: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis

Best Actress

In this category, we have the oldest ever Best Actress nominee (Emmanuelle Riva for Amour) and the youngest (Quvenzhané Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild). Old people get sympathy votes, young people get cuteness votes.

Meanwhile, there are two huge contenders in the form of Jessica Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) and Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty). Both of these women are exactly the kind of people the Academy loves to give awards to; polished, entertaining in interviews and future megastars.

Will win: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Could win: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Should win: Emmanuelle Riva

Best Supporting Actor

The front-runner has been Robert DeNiro in Silver Linings Playbook, and this would represent his third Oscar win. However, buzz has been steadily growing about Christoph Waltz’s remarkable performance in Django Unchained. And then there’s Tommy Lee Jones, who wore a funny wig in Lincoln. Ignore Alan Arkin, his role in Argo was no different to anything else he’s done in the past decade, while Philip Seymour Hoffman was great in The Master, but – again – it’s about Scientology, so no dice. This should go to Christoph Waltz, but I have a feeling DeNiro will hang on in there.

Will win: Robert DeNiro, Silver Linings Playbook

Could win: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Should win: Christoph Waltz

Best Supporting Actress

Anne Hathaway. Like Best Actor, this was in the bag before Les Miserables was even released. Many consider Hathaway to be the best thing about the film and she has won every award there is to win for it so far. There’s been a bit of a backlash towards her winning streak, but not enough to derail her. During her short time on screen in Les Mis, she was incredible and emotion poured out of the screen.

Will win: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Could win: Sally Field, Lincoln

Should win: Anne Hathaway

Others

Best Documentary – Searching for Sugar Man

Best Foreign Film – Amour

Best Cinematography – Life of Pi

Best Original Screenplay – Django Unchained